Revisiting unit roots in divorce rates

Abstract

We explore the persistence of the divorce rates in OECD countries. We provide evidence to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root and propose that changes in divorce rates are nonlinear time series processes that could be modelled by stationary threshold autoregressive (TAR) or smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models.

Keywords:

• divorce rate
• divorce law
• persistence
• threshold models

JEL Classification:

• J12
• K36
• C22

Notes

¹ TAR model is nonlinear, but within each regime it behaves in a linear fashion.