Nonlinear trend stationarity in global and hemispheric temperatures

ABSTRACT

This study investigates the issue of whether our Earth’s surface temperature exhibits a stochastic trend. Using state-of-the-art econometrics, we analyse the latest available temperature anomaly data. Our results indicate that both global and hemispheric temperatures may appear to have a stochastic trend when in fact they are stationary around a nonlinear deterministic trend and structural breaks are responsible. Furthermore, the nonlinearity found in the temperature trend is more complex than what has been reported in previous studies.

KEYWORDS:

• Stochastic trend
• trend breaks
• stationarity
• surface temperature
• global warming

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• C22
• Q54

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.