The effect of the Zika virus outbreak on fertility and female labour market outcomes

ABSTRACT

Since the outbreak of the Zika virus in Brazil, the number of microcephaly cases significantly increased among newborn children. Detrimental effects on the health outcomes of newborn children provided incentives to delay pregnancy, thereby potentially affecting women’s labour market outcomes. Using the variation of suspected microcephaly cases across states, we found that for every suspected microcephaly case per 10,000 residents, the probability of having a newborn child decreased by approximately 8%. This trend was more pronounced among younger and more educated women. Despite fertility decline, our findings provide little evidence that female labour market outcomes were altered by the outbreak of Zika virus.

KEYWORDS:

• Women
• fertility
• Zika virus
• labor market outcomes

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• I10
• J10

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

¹ Labor force participation slightly increased for females older than 35 years, but it was less likely to be the result of delayed motherhood, given that there was a very small change in fertility behaviour among this group.

² State-level employment and unemployment data were obtained from the IBGE website.

³ Due to the restriction based on grandchildren or relatives, we dropped approximately 8% of our sample.

⁴ Given that abortion is usually prohibited in Brazil, it is less likely to detect the immediate change in birth rates after the outbreak of Zika virus.

⁵ In the northeast region, where the highest number of suspected microcephaly cases was reported, the average cumulative microcephaly case during the sample period was 1.00. Pernambuco had the highest number of cases in the fourth quarter of 2016 as 2.4.