Monetary shocks, output and inflation – evidence from asymmetric causality test

ABSTRACT

This study examines whether the positive and negative unanticipated monetary shocks have asymmetric causal impact on real output growth and inflation rate. In particular, we examine whether the asymmetry observed in the impact of these shocks on output is consistent with that of inflation as predicted by menu cost models. The empirical results indicate that the positive monetary shocks tend to cause an increase in price whereas the negative monetary shocks have no impact. On the other hand, the negative monetary shocks cause a fall in real output; however, the positive monetary shocks seem to have no impact. The crucial implication of these findings is that the positive monetary shocks tend to be inflationary with less or no impact on real output whereas the negative monetary shocks cause reductions in real output with no or less impact on inflation.

KEYWORDS:

• Monetary shocks
• asymmetric impact
• inflation
• output growth

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• E52
• E58
• E31

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors

Notes

¹ See DeLong and Summers (1988), Cover (1992).

² The appropriate lag structure is determined by following AIC and BIC criteria.

³ The GAUSS Code developed by Hacker and Hatemi-J. (2010) is used for estimation.