A note on stock market response to elections in the post-communist countries of the European Union

ABSTRACT

We examine the stock market response to parliamentary elections in post-communist countries of the European Union. We document that the long-term market response to an election is −200 basis points (bps). The response is symmetric across the ideology of the winner party. Moreover, we show that aggregate responses are driven by elections with policy uncertainty due to the transition of power across ideologies. The long-term market response to right (left) victories after left (right) governments is −500 bps (−600bps).

KEYWORDS:

• Policy uncertainty
• elections
• stock market response
• event study
• European Union

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• G12
• G14
• G15

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

¹ We exclude Croatia because its membership timeline differs.

² See Manifesto Project Database (wzb.eu) for more information.