Safe-haven or speculation? Research on price and risk dynamics of Bitcoin

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates the price and risk dynamics of Bitcoin. Applying SVAR to study Bitcoin, gold and U.S. dollar in one system, we find that neither the gold nor U.S. dollar can explain Bitcoin pricing dynamics in the short-run. We further apply the DCC-MGARCH model to study the risk correlations. The results show that there exists volatility spillover effect and dynamic correlation between three markets, which is magnified with the advent of COVID-19. We can thus draw a conclusion that the boom of Bitcoin is just a hype and speculative bubble.

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• Bitcoin
• gold
• U.S. dollar
• SVAR
• COVID-19

JEL CLASSIFICATION:

• C58
• E44
• G10

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Compliance of ethical standard statement

The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

This article does not contain any studies with human participants performed by any of the authors.

Data availability statement

All data included in this study are available upon request by contact with the corresponding author.

Additional information

Funding

The author(s) reported there is no funding associated with the work featured in this article.