Population growth and development: the case of Bangladesh

Abstract

This paper raises the question whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous with respect to the development process of Bangladesh during the last three decades. The results of an unrestricted vector autoregression model indicate that population growth does not Granger cause real GDP per capita. On the contrary, the results clearly indicate that real GDP per capita Granger causes population growth. Based on the results one may conclude that population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh. This is reflected both in the Granger causality tests and the decompositions of variances of detrended real GDP per capita and population growth.