The Library is on Fire, Now What? Assessing the Damage and How to Approach It: A Case Study from the Chesapeake Bay

ABSTRACT

The Longwood Institute of Archaeology conducted the Vulnerability, Potential and Condition (VPC) assessment of shoreline archaeological sites along 1990 km (1237 miles) of the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia. VPC assessment involves a three-pronged approach that includes (1) the assessment of site vulnerability due to changing shorelines using an analytical package called Analysing Moving Boundaries Using R – AMBUR, (2) the assessment of potential shoreline site locations through predictive modelling using Weights of Evidence – WofE – analysis, and (3) the assessment of current conditions of known sites through direct observation. Vulnerability assessment results indicated that 49% of site shorelines in the project area are moving landward. Potential assessment located high-probability site locations with an 83% efficiency. Condition assessment, conducted using standard field protocols, provided feedback of the sites’ current conditions. The intended outcome of this method is to provide resource managers with information needed to make informed, data-driven management decisions.

KEYWORDS:

• AMBUR
• archaeology
• climate change
• predictive modelling
• shoreline morphology
• threatened sites

Acknowledgments

The authors and the Longwood Institute of Archaeology would like thank the Virginia Department of Historic Resources and the National Park Service for making this project possible. The foundation for the Vulnerability Assessment was provided by the Skidaway Institute of Oceanography, namely, Dr Clark Alexander and Dr Mike Robinson. We would also like to thank the developer of Analysing Moving Boundaries Using ‘R’, Dr Chester Jackson of Georgia Southern University. Dr Scott Strickland of St. Mary’s College of Maryland offered valuable advice for the Potential Assessment. Our efforts would not have been possible without the help of local contacts including Dave Brown, Linda Brown, Tom Karrow, Forrest Morgan, Marilyn South, and Jane Spencer. Finally, we want to thank Erin West and our undergraduate students for their work on this project.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. All data used in this project, including GIS shapefiles and maps, are available at the Longwood Institute of Archaeology at Longwood University in Farmville, Virginia.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the National Park Service’s Hurricane Sandy Disaster Relief Assistance Grant for Historic Properties and administered by the Virginia Department of Historic Resources under VA-07 and VA-13.

Notes on contributors

J. Craig Rose

J. Craig Rose, Senior Archaeologist, earned his MA from University College London, Institute of Archaeology and has over 14 years experience in cultural resource management and research in Virginia and the Middle Atlantic region. [email protected]

Mary E. F. Bennett

Mary E. F. Bennett, Laboratory Supervisor, specialises in GIS methods, especially the use of AMBUR. She manages the archaeological laboratory and instructs undergraduate students in laboratory and GIS methods. [email protected]

Brian D. Bates

Brian D. Bates, Executive Director and Senior Principal Investigator, received his doctorate in archaeology from University College London, Institute of Archaeology. He has over 25 years of field and academic archaeology experience. [email protected]

Walter R. T. Witschey

Walter R. T. Witschey, Research Professor of Anthropology and Geography, is an archaeologist who specialises in GIS analysis of settlement patterns, especially of the Ancient Maya of Mesoamerica. [email protected]