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Abstract
The increasingly prosperous, mighty, and assertive China is arguably the most powerful country blocking democracy today. In addition to withholding democratic rights of one-fifth of the world's population, authoritarian China represents an alternative development model that has gained significant traction. China thus constitutes a challenge to democracy promoters. But does Beijing also countervail democracy promotion by the European Union and the United States? After a summary of the party-state's response to democracy promotion at home, we test the hypothesis that geostrategic interests or a perceived risk of regime survival will lead the People's Republic to countervail democracy promotion outside its own borders. We do so by focusing on the most likely cases in China's near-abroad: Myanmar and Hong Kong. Our analysis of Myanmar suggests that Beijing remains focused on securing economic and security interests irrespective of regime type when regime survival at home is not at risk. The case of Hong Kong, on the other hand, allows us to identify the tactics used by Beijing when there is a significant risk of democratic spillover. This case also demonstrates that the People's Republic of China is able to stifle United States and European Union democracy support when it wishes to do so.
Acknowledgements
We thank the participants of an authors’ workshop for helpful comments on an earlier draft and three anonymous reviewers for constructive criticism. Andrew J. Nathan, Malin Oud, Minxin Pei, Christopher Walker, and others who asked that we withhold their names helped by sharing insights at the very beginning of our research. Allison West slightly edited the final text. Katrin Kinzelbach gratefully acknowledges a research grant from the Volkswagen Foundation.
Notes on contributors
Dingding Chen is Assistant Professor of Government and Public Administration at the University of Macau as well as Non-Resident Fellow at the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Germany. He was a visiting instructor in the government department at Dartmouth College and was affiliated with the Olin Institute for Strategic Studies at Harvard University. Dingding was also a China and the World Program Fellow at Princeton University. Dingding holds a bachelor's in international economics from the Renmin University of China and a master's and PhD in political science from the University of Chicago.
Katrin Kinzelbach is Associate Director of the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in Berlin and Visiting Professor at the Central European University in Budapest, School of Public Policy. Prior to joining GPPi, Katrin worked at the Ludwig Boltzmann Institute of Human Rights. From 2001–2007, she was a staff member of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Katrin studied at the Universities of Bonn and Florence and at King's College London. Her PhD is from the University of Vienna and won the award “Deutscher Studienpreis” of the Körber Foundation, which honours outstanding research of particular value to society.
Notes
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2. For China's approach to democracy promotion further afield, see the article by Christine Hackenesch in this volume.
3. See Walker, “Authoritarian Regimes Are Changing”; and Bader and Kästner, “Externe Autokratieförderung?”; also see Nathan “China's Challenge to Democracy.”
4. Liu and Chen, “Why China Will Democratize.”
5. Nathan, “China at the Tipping Point,” 20.
6. Pei, “5 Ways China Could Become a Democracy.”
7. ChinaFile, “Document 9.”
8. Godement, “Control at the Grassroots,” 3.
9. Ibid.
10. Xie, “Rising Central Spending,” 104.
11. ChinaFile, “Document 9.”
12. Ibid.
13. See http://xuzhiyong2012.blogspot.de/2012/11/blog-post_9281.html, accessed 16 May 2014.
14. Confidential interview with European official, conducted by Katrin Kinzelbach in January 2012.
15. See Callahan, “The Generals Loosen Their Grip”; and Myint-U, “White Elephants and Black Swans,” for more details.
16. European Commission, “Press Release.”
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19. Ibid.
20. Myint-U, “White Elephants and Black Swans,” 26.
21. Ibid., 30.
22. Sun, “China and the Changing Myanmar.”
23. China Institute for International Studies, http://www.ciis.org.cn/chinese/2013-05/30/content_5992294.htm, accessed 24 July 2014.
24. Fan, “China Adapts to New Myanmar Realities.”
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27. UN Human Rights Council, Second Session, § 106.
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29. Li, “China-Myanmar Relations,” 17–33; also see Fan, “China Adapts to New Myanmar Realities,” 6–7.
30. Personal interview with scholars at Myanmar Studies Center at Yunnan University by Dingding Chen on 16 September 2014.
31. Nikkei Asian Review, http://zh.cn.nikkei.com/politicsaeconomy/economic-policy/8635-20140328.html, accessed 16 May 2014.
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35. See for example Cook, “Post-Myitsone Relations”; Li, “China-Myanmar Comprehensive Partnership”; Taylor, “Modern China-Myanmar Relations.”
36. Nathan, “China's Challenge to Democracy.”
37. Fan, “China Adapts to New Myanmar Realities,” 8.
38. Bader and Kästner, “Externe Autokratieförderung?”
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40. The only noteworthy spillover effect is that of the Kachin conflict into Yunnan province, where Beijing did not remain uninvolved but exercised “unprecedented pressure” according to Fan, “China Adapts to New Myanmar Realities,” 9.
41. We thank Minxin Pei for advancing this explanation in a conversation about this article.
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