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ABSTRACT
In contrast to the empirical conditions in large parts of the authoritarian world, the systematic literature on political opposition under authoritarianism either treats the opposition as a static entity or fails to comprehensively address its dynamic character. On the basis of a critical literature review and an ensuing analysis of the Joint Meeting Parties, a cross-ideological opposition alliance that gradually evolved to become the main competitor of the Salih regime in Yemen, we suggest that political opposition in electoral authoritarian regimes is an intrinsically dynamic institution in terms of its organizational shape, its goals and its modes of contestation. We also show that, while authoritarian structures do set the basic conditions defining opposition action, much of what motivates this action and contributes to opposition dynamism emerges from within the opposition. In addition, our findings on the Yemeni case suggest that opposition dynamism peaks when the strength of the opposition is nearly on par with that of the regime.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
Notes
1 Hamid, “Political Party Development.”
2 Eyadat, “Transition without Players.”
3 Dresch, History of Modern Yemen, 211.
4 Transfeld, “Political Bargaining.”
5 For the functions of authoritarian elections, see Schedler, Electoral Authoritarianism.
6 Sartori, “Opposition and Control,” 151.
7 Patzelt, “Opposition,” 1745.
8 Blondel, “Political Opposition”; Dahl, Regimes and Oppositions.
9 King, “Executive-Legislative Relations,” 18.
10 Albrecht, “Contentious Politics,” 6–7.
11 Leca, “Opposition,” 568.
12 Galtung, Peace, 71.
13 There are a few exceptions that apply an agency-centred approach, most notably those inspired by transitology. See Stepan, “Democratic Opposition.”
14 Lust-Okar, Structuring Conflict.
15 Zartman, “Opposition as Support”; Albrecht, “How Can Opposition.”
16 Luciani, “Allocation vs. Production States.”
17 Blondel, 463; see also Dahl, “Introduction,” 13.
18 See Schwedler, “Rethinking.”
19 On opposition cooperation see Kraetzschmar, “Mapping Opposition.”
20 Giddens, Central Problems, 63, 65–9.
21 The interrelation between regime type and the choice of contentious repertoires is discussed by Tilly and Tarrow, Contentious Politics, 54–7.
22 Stepan, “Democratic Opposition,” 42.
23 Ibid.
24 See Longley Alley, “Unpacking Patronage.”
25 Phillips, “Centrality of Process,” 231.
26 Day, Regionalism and Rebellion.
27 Linz, “Opposition,” 193–4.
28 Schwedler, “Aborted Opening,” 48.
29 Wedeen, Peripheral Visions. Exploring the “new authoritarianism” under Salih, Blumi furthermore holds that the regime strategically instigated conflict amongst social and political groups to strengthen its grip on power. Idem, Chaos in Yemen.
30 Dresch, History of Modern Yemen, 209.
31 In the 1997 parliamentary elections, the GPC won 188 out of 299 seats (1993: 123), Islah 53 (1993: 62). The YSP boycotted these elections (1993: 56). Schwedler, 49, 51.
32 Al-Mutawakkil, “Al-afaq,” 156.
33 Browers, “Origins and Architects,” 568.
34 For Islah's Salafi wing see Bonnefoy and Poirier, “The Yemeni Congregation.”
35 Philbrick Yadav provides an intriguing account of how the de-radicalization of the Brotherhood in Yemen facilitated the emergence of the JMP. Idem, Islamists and the State, chap. 5. For Islah's evolution in the 1990s see also Schwedler, Faith in Moderation.
36 Interview with Muhammad Qahtan, head of Islah's political section, Sanaa, 7 January 2013.
37 We were unable to obtain a copy of the agreement, but most, if not all, of its demands are included in the 2006 Vision of the JMP Guaranteeing the Holding of Free, Fair and Just Elections (ruʾya ahzab al-liqaʾ al-mushtarak li-daman ijraʾ intikhabat hurra wa naziha wa ʿadila), replicated in al-Kibsi, Nizam al-hukm, 551–69.
38 Bilqis, Al-ahzab al-siyasiyya, 372.
39 Longley Alley, “Unpacking Patronage,” 406.
40 Al-Faqih, “Al-takattul,” 163.
41 Idem, Mudhakkirat, 312.
42 Browers, “Origins and Architects,” 571–3.
43 Muhammad al-Qaḍi, “Ahzab al-muʿarada al-yamaniyya tuwaqqiʿ ‘ittifaq al-mabadiʾ’ li-l-tansiq al-mushtarak fi-l-intikhabat al-barlamaniyya,” al-Riyad, 8 February 2003, http://www.alriyadh.com/Contents/08-02-2003/Mainpage/POLITICS_7250.php (accessed 27 February 2015).
44 The GPC won 229 seats, Islah 45, the YSP 7 and NUPO 3. Carapico, “How Yemen's Ruling Party.”
45 Interview with Muhammad Qahtan, 7 January 2013.
46 Interview with ʿAli al-Sarari, YSP politbureau, Sanaa, 14 January 2013.
47 “Letter Informing of MCC Decision to Suspend Yemen's Eligibility for Assistance,” Millennium Challenge Corporation, 28 November 2005, http://www.mcc.gov/documents/cn/cn-112805-yemen.pdf (accessed 25 February 2012); “Yemen: World Bank Cuts Support by a Third Citing Slow Progress,” IRIN, 26 December 2005, http://www.irinnews.org/fr/reportfrench.aspx?reportid=25836 (accessed 19 June 2017).
48 Longley Alley, Shifting Lights, 198–205.
49 These are the Basic By-laws Governing the Work of the JMP (al-laʾiha al-asasiyya al-munazzima li-ʿamal al-liqaʾ al-mushtarak) and the By-law Governing the Work of the Branches of the JMP in the Governorates (al-laʾiha al-munazzima li-ʿamal furuʿ al-liqaʾ al-mushtarak fi-l-muhafazat).
50 Browers, “Origins and Architects,” 579.
51 Faysal bin Shamlan, “Al-barnamaj al-intikhabi li-murashshah al-liqaʾ al-mushtarak li-l-intikhabat al-riʾasiyya,” 14 October, 11 September 2006, http://www.14october.com/news.aspx?newsno=120024 (accessed 20 June 2017).
52 Browers, “Origins and Architects,” 579.
53 Interview with Muhammad Qahtan, Sanaa, 26 April 2014.
54 “La taqaddum fi hiwar al-lahza al-akhira bayna-l-raʾis wa-l-Islah,” al-Nidaʾ, 24 May 2006, http://alnedaa.net/index.php?action=showNews&id=78 (accessed 20 February 2012).
55 Longley, “High Water Mark,” 247.
56 “Qala innahu rajul al-marhala al-qadima li-l-yaman: Al-shaykh ʿAbd al-Majid al-Zindani yuʿlin annahu lan yuʾayyid shakhsan akhar ghayr al-raʾis ʿAli ʿAbdallah Ṣaleh,” 26 September, 21 August 2006, http://26sep.net/news_details.php?lng=arabic&sid=17879 (accessed 20 June 2017).
57 “Al-Zindani: Ana Islahi was sa-azill Islahiyan wa ana raʾis majlis shura al-Islah,” al-Islah, 19 September 2006, http://www.al-islah.net.com/default.aspx?aspxerrorpath=/details.aspx (accessed 20 February 2012).
58 Longley Alley, Shifting Lights, 71.
59 “Qala innahu rajul al-marhala al-qadima li-l-yaman”.
60 Ibid., 246.
61 The results of the 2006 presidential and local council elections are provided in ibid., 242.
62 EU Election Observation Mission, Yemen, 34–40.
63 IMF, “Republic of Yemen,” 6–7.
64 The list of Hirak's leaders who were, or still are, members of the politbureau or the Central Committee includes ʿAli al-Bayd, Haydar al-ʿAttas, Nasir ʿAli al-Nuba, Hasan Baʿum, Ahmad al-Majidi, or ʿAli Mansar. Interview with Munir al-Saqqaf, YSP, Sanaa, 6 January 2013.
65 Nabil al-Ṣufi, “30 wajh jadid aghlabihim min rumuz al-nukhba al-hakima,” al-Nidaʾ, 28 February 2007, http://www.alnedaa.net/index.php?action=showNews&id=672 (accessed 20 June 2017).
66 Heibach, “Monopoly of Interpretation,” 572.
67 Abdul Rahim al-Showthabi, “Ruling Party Revolted against Democracy, Sheikh al-Ahmar Says, Accuses Them of Destroying the Country,” Yemen Post, 10 November 2008, http://www.yemenpost.net/55/LocalNews/20082.htm (accessed 20 June 2017).
68 The first three pages of al-Ayyam newspaper of 19 November 2008 are packed with reports about protests related to the voter registration boycott in the south.
69 “Lajna al-tashawur al-watani tuʿlin tawqiʿ ittifaq maʿa al-Huthi,” News Yemen, April 14, 2010, http://www.newsyemen.net/printn.asp?sub_no=1_2010_04_14_43057 (accessed 16 April 2010).
70 Fattah Haidarah, “JMP, PDC, External Opposition Meet in Cairo,” Yemen Observer, June 21, 2010, http://www.yobserver.com/front-page/10018980.html (accessed 1 July 2010).
71 “GPC and JMP Sign Minute over February Agreement,” Yemen Post, 18 July 2010, http://www.yemenpost.net/Detail123456789.aspx?ID=3&SubID=2420 (accessed 18 July 2010).
72 Interview with ʿAbd al-Ghani al-Iryani, political analyst, Sanaa, 20 December 2012.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Jens Heibach
Jens Heibach is postdoctoral research fellow at the GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies, Hamburg. He was previously a lecturer in Middle East Politics at the Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies, Philipps University of Marburg, Germany. His research focuses on conflict dynamics in the Persian Gulf and on the Arabian Peninsula in particular.
Mareike Transfeld
Mareike Transfeld is a PhD candidate at the Berlin Graduate School Muslim Cultures and Societies working on a Facebook anthropology of Yemeni youth between 2011 and 2015. She was previously a research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin and the Head of Research at the Yemen Polling Center in Sanaa.