https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3385-0645
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ABSTRACT
In May 2018, the Malaysian opposition coalition Pakatan Harapan or Hope Alliance won the federal elections for the first time in the history of the country. The electoral authoritarian system is now in a state of transition. The electoral breakthrough was the result of longer-term socio-economic transformations, but the formation of a strong pre-electoral coalition was ultimately decisive for the victory. The article compares various coalitions and their performance during seven elections since 1990. The structured, focused comparison analyses the coalitions during this period because prior to 1990 the opposition was fragmented. On the basis of a three-level concept regarding the strength of pre-electoral coalitions, the article argues that Pakatan Harapan was successful because the coalition was sufficiently comprehensive (as indicated by the number and the competitiveness of candidates), cohesive (concerning ideological proximity and behavioural routinization) and well-rooted in society (in terms of linkages to voters/supporters and to civil society networks or organizations).
Acknowledgements
I would like to thank Patrick Köllner, David Kühn, Marco Bünte and in particular the three anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
ORCID
Andreas Ufen http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3385-0645
Notes
1 Golder, The Logic, 4.
2 Lindberg, Democratization; Bunce and Wolchik, “Getting Real.”
3 Schedler, Politics of Uncertainty.
4 Ostwald, “How to Win,” Wong, “Constituency Delimitation.”
5 Hutchinson, “Federal System.”
6 Gomez, Minister of Finance.
7 Ufen, “Laissez-faire,” Saravanamuttu and Maznah, “The Monetisation.”
8 Gandhi and Lust-Okar, “Elections under Authoritarianism,” Magaloni, Voting for Autocracy.
9 See also Lindberg, Democratization, 144f; Howard and Roessler, “Liberalizing Electoral Outcomes.” For a rather sceptical take on democratization via elections, see Morgenbesser and Pepinsky, “Elections as Causes.”
10 Bunce and Wolchik, “Getting Real,” 70.
11 Randall and Svåsand, “Party Institutionalization.”
12 Levitsky, “Institutionalization.”
13 Mainwaring and Torcal, “Party System Institutionalization.”
14 According to Golder “pre-electoral coalitions are more likely to form when parties are ideologically compatible, when the expected coalition size is large (but not too large), and when the potential coalition partners are of similar size” (Golder, The Logic, 9). Additionally, ideologically polarized party systems and disproportional electoral rules increase the probability of pre-electoral coalition formation.
15 See on collective action problems of individual parties within Malaysian opposition coalitions: Dettmann, “Dilemmas.” See also the excellent dissertation by Ong, Opposing Power, who focusses on the coordination of campaigning and on coalition agreements to reduce the number of candidates.
16 Weiss, “Payoffs.”
17 Ong, Opposing Power, 292.
18 Means, Malaysian Politics, 6ff.
19 Ong, Opposing Power, 159ff.
20 Abdullah, “Inclusion-moderation,” 414.
21 Khong, “Malaysia‘s 1990.”
22 Abdullah, “Inclusion-moderation,” 414.
23 Gomez, The 1995 Malaysian.
24 Loh Kok Wah and Saravanamuttu, New Politics.
25 Alternative Front (1999), Joint Manifesto. Towards a Just Malaysia, https://dapmalaysia.org/english/2009/nov09/bul/bul3981.htm. Accessed June 9, 2018.
26 See on this Funston, “Malaysia’s Tenth Elections,” 38 and 53.
27 Ufen, “The transformation.”
28 Funston, “Malaysia’s Tenth Elections,” 52.
29 Brownlee, Authoritarianism.
30 Govindasamy, “Social movements.”
31 Chin and Wong, “Malaysia’s Electoral Upheaval,” Ufen, “The transformation.”
32 On the increasing significance of these agreements: Ong, Opposing Power, 166ff.
33 Weiss, “Edging Toward,” 749f.
34 Ibid. 751.
35 Ong, “Electoral manipulation,” 167.
36 Interview with Rama Ramanathan, former Bersih 2.0 steering committee member, Kuala Lumpur, 26.10.2018, and Kia Meng Boon, Kuala Lumpur, 15.10.2018.
37 Vladisavljević, “Competitive authoritarianism,” 47.
38 Welsh, “Malaysia’s Elections.”
39 On the 2013 elections: Pepinsky, “The 2013 Malaysia.”
40 Interview with Syed Ibrahim, Central Leadership Council, PKR, Kuala Lumpur, 24.10.2018.
41 Khoo, “Borne by Dissent,” 478, see also: Abdullah, “Inclusion-moderation,” 416.
42 Hutchinson, “Malaysia’s 14th,” 600.
43 Dettman and Weiss, “Has Patronage,” 749.
44 Ahmad, “The Hudud Controversy.”
45 Abdullah, “Inclusion-moderation,” 416ff.
46 Especially on these trade-offs for individual parties: Dettmann, Dilemmas of Opposition.
47 Moreover, UMNO reached out to Malay chauvinists and to Islamists. It supported the move by PAS to table a private member’s bill to amend the Syariah Courts (Criminal Jurisdiction) Act 1965 (Act 355). This bill sought to increase the penalties for certain offences in Kelantan.
48 Interviews with Rais Hussein, Bersatu, Chairman Policy and Strategy Bureau, Kuala Lumpur, 4.4.2018; with Mohd Anwar, Amanah, Secretary General, Kuala Lumpur, 5.4.2018; and with Sevan Doraisamy, Executive Director SUARAM, Kuala Lumpur, 22.10.2018.
49 Hutchinson, “Malaysia’s 14th,” Welsh, “‘Saviour’ Politics.”
50 Ong, “Electoral manipulation,” 163.
51 Abdullah, “The Mahathir Effect,” Ong, Opposing Power, 238f.
52 Shortly after the 2018 elections, Mahathir enjoyed 83% approval according to a national survey (Merdeka Center, National Voter Sentiments, Excerpt of Principal Indicators as at 11 March 2019, file:///C:/Users/ufen/Downloads/National%20March%202019%20-%20Excerpt%20for%20Press%20Release.pdf. Accessed May 22, 2019).
53 Khoo “Borne by Dissent,” 477.
54 Bunce and Wolchik, “Defeating Dictators,” 76.
55 1Malaysia was a concept introduced by Najib to promote national unity and encompassed a range of public services and welfare programs.
56 Najib, “The Right Choice.”
57 Najib was implicated in a scandal surrounding the activities of 1MDB (1Malaysia Development Berhad), a strategic development company owned by the Ministry of Finance. In July 2015, it was reported that Najib had received almost US$700 million to his personal accounts ahead of the 2013 election.
58 Suffian, “6 Factors,” Hutchinson, “Malaysia’s 14th.”
59 Likewise, to Bunce and Wolchik, “Defeating Dictators,” 56f, levels of economic development correlate poorly with the different outcomes of electoral challenges, especially when the focus is on longer-term economic trends.
60 Compare the 2018 platform of Pakatan Harapan (Buku Harapan: Rebuilding our Nation, Fulfilling our Hopes, https://kempen.s3.amazonaws.com/manifesto/Manifesto_text/Manifesto_PH_EN.pdf. Accessed January 3, 2019) with that of Pakatan Rakyat in 2013 (People’s Manifesto, http://www.keadilanrakyat.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/ENG-Manifesto-BOOK.pdf. Accessed January 3, 2019) and, in particular, that of the Alternative Front in 1999 (Joint Manifesto. Towards a Just Malaysia, https://dapmalaysia.org/english/2009/nov09/bul/bul3981.htm. Accessed June 9, 2018).
61 Dettmann, “Dilemmas,” 37f.
62 The Straits Times, Most Malaysian Chinese voted PH in polls, but Malays in 3-way split, June 14, 2018.
63 Hutchinson, “Malaysia’s 14th,” 599.
64 Funston, “Malaysia’s 14th General,” Abdullah, “The Mahathir Effect,” 9.
65 Tapsell, “The Smartphone.”
66 Abbott and Wagner Givens, “Strategic Censorship.”
67 Abdullah “The Mahathir Effect,” 10.
68 Wahmann (“Offices and Policies”) stresses the role of “real policy divides” and that “coalitions are more probable when an oppositional victory seems realistic.”
69 Randall and Svåsand, “Party Institutionalization.”
Additional information
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Andreas Ufen
Andreas Ufen is a Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA Institute of Asian Studies in Hamburg and an Adjunct Professor for political science at the University of Hamburg. His main interests are democratization, political Islam, political parties, populism, and elections in Southeast Asia. He is also co-editor of the “Journal of Current Southeast Asian Affairs”. He has published books on democratization in Indonesia and on the Malaysian party system and co-edited books on “Democratization in Post-Suharto Indonesia” and on “Party Politics in Southeast Asia: Clientelism and Electoral Competition in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines”. He has published articles in journals such as Pacific Review, Critical Asian Studies, Asian Survey, Contemporary Politics, and South East Asia Research.