Poland has both the potential and desire to become a significant military contributor to NATO. The Polish military, however, is unlikely to become a major player in NATO in the next 15 years because financial constraints will impede progress in two key areas: contributing to NATO air operations and building a Western‐style military. At the same time, however, Poland seems poised to meet two other important benchmarks shared by NATO's top European contributors: contributing to Alliance ground or peacekeeping operations and building a political power base at NATO. Given this progress, Poland will seek to become an active and powerful Alliance member, suggesting that Polish membership has important implications for NATO's future, as well as Polish relations with the US and European Union.
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