The decline of the third Rome: Russia's prospects as a great power

Abstract

Russia is in long‐term decline and will not regain its former status as great power of the first rank even if its economy and military improve rapidly and substantially. Indeed, two other powers on the Eurasian landmass, the European Union and China, will likely surpass Russia in international standing and secure superpower status in the coming decades. These are trends of significant historical importance for Moscow and for international politics. However, Russia's international decline will not necessarily be catastrophic, and intelligent leadership can probably prevent the breakup of the Russian Federation or similarly extreme outcomes.