Are arms transfers from the former Soviet Union a security threat? The case of combat aircraft

Abstract

The post‐Cold War threat of exports of advanced conventional weaponry from the former Soviet Union has been more of a paper tiger than a reality for US defense planners. In fact, transfers have been extremely limited in number and consequence. I argue that the period from 1990 to 1997 was characterized by political, economic, and technological restraints on exports from the ex‐Soviet republics. These constraints will continue to limit transfers for the foreseeable future. Russia's plans to build up the defense industrial bases of China and India are cause for more concern. Even here, Russian arms cooperation has been problematic, and the long‐term threat is uncertain.