Not by NPT alone: The future of the global nuclear order

ABSTRACT

The nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) constitutes just one component of broader arrangements that provide global nuclear governance. In recent decades, the other props in the global nuclear order beyond its nonproliferation elements have been eroding, thereby putting more weight on the contributions of the NPT and other aspects of the nonproliferation regime. Unfortunately, recent progress in building up the NPT-based nonproliferation regime seems also to have halted. This article outlines the elements of the global nuclear order and identifies signs of erosion in that order. It discusses whether a greater commitment to nuclear disarmament might help counter that erosion and highlights the underlying cognitive dimension of efforts to avoid nuclear war.

KEYWORDS:

• Nuclear weapons
• global governance
• strategic stability
• arms control
• nonproliferation
• disarmament

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No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

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Jeffrey W. Knopf

Jeffrey W. Knopf is a professor at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies (MIIS), where he serves as chair of the MA program in Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies. He is also a research affiliate with the Middlebury Institute’s James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and with the Center on International Security and Cooperation at Stanford University. Dr. Knopf has published extensively on topics related to nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. His most recent book is a volume he co-edited on Behavioral Economics and Nuclear Weapons (University of Georgia Press, 2019).