The last atomic Waltz: China’s nuclear expansion and the persisting relevance of the theory of the nuclear revolution

ABSTRACT

China’s nuclear expansion has fueled debates about its nuclear strategy. In this article, I argue that there is still little evidence to suggest that China’s strategy has changed. The expansion can best be explained as an effort to bolster China’s second-strike capability, and it is primarily driven by increasing concerns about US missile defense as well as nuclear and conventional counterforce weapons. This is in line with assumptions of the nuclear revolution theory, which stresses the importance of secure second-strike forces. So far, China’s nuclear modernization does not align with the “delicate nuclear balance” school, which sees strong incentives for states to adopt competitive nuclear policies and attempt to obtain strategic superiority. The findings further highlight how US policy choices will have a significant influence on China’s future nuclear posture. A strong US response to China’s expansion will feed arms race dynamics and increase the risks of China fielding destabilizing weapons.

KEYWORDS:

• China
• nuclear weapons
• nuclear revolution theory
• deterrence

Acknowledgements

For helpful comments and suggestions, the author thanks M. Taylor Fravel, Robert S. Ross, Øystein Tunsjø, and the anonymous reviewers.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest has been reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

Research for this article was supported by the Security in Asia program at the Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies.