Deterrence and asymmetry: non-state actors and mass casualty terrorism

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Notes

CBRNE = chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and enhanced explosive. Quote taken from ‘Part I: America's Security in the Twenty-First Century’, Quadrenial Defense Review Report (QDR) (US Department of Defense, 30 September 2001) p.5.

Seminar presentation by Mike Wermuth, Executive Director of the US ‘Gilmore Commission’ (Centre for Defence Studies, King's College, London, 25 Oct. 2001). The Gilmore Commission is the congressionally mandated Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction.

DCI Worldwide Threat Briefing 2002: Converging Dangers in a Post 9/11 World, Testimony of Director of Central Intelligence, George J. Tenet, Before The Select Committee on Intelligence, Senate, US Congress, 6 Feb. 2002 <http://www.odci.gov/cia/public_affairs/speeches/dci_speech_02062002.html>.

DCI Worldwide Threat Briefing 2002. See also: Responsibility for the Terrorist Atrocities in the United States, 11 September 2001: An Updated Account, document released by Her Majesty's Government, 10 Downing Street, London (Nov. 2001); Statement on ‘Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats’, Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President of the RAND Corporation, before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats, 15 Nov. 2001, p.7. It became evident during the 1990s that certain groups were interested in acquiring some form of CBRN capability. In July 1999, the ‘Deutch Commission’ reported that at least a dozen terrorist groups had expressed an interest in or had actively sought to acquire CBRN. See Combating Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (Report of the Commission to Assess the Organization of the Federal Government to Combat the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, 14 July 1999), p.1.

Linda Rothstein, ‘After September 11’, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol.57, No.6 (Nov./Dec. 2001), pp.44–8, available at: <http://www.bullatomsci.org/issues/2001/nd01/nd01rothstein.html/>.

DCI Worldwide Threat Briefing 2002.

See for example: Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966).

See for example: Fact Sheet on Missile Defense and Deterrence, Bureau of Arms Control, US Department of State (1 Sept. 2001), available at: <http://www.state.gov/t/ac/rls/fs/2001/4891.htm>.

Robert T. Art, ‘To What Ends Military Power?’, International Security Vol.4 (Spring 1980), p.8.

Gerald M. Steinberg, ‘Rediscovering Deterrence After September 11, 2001’, Jerusalem Letter/Viewpoints, No.467 (2 Dec. 2001), Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, available at <http://www.jcpa.org/jl/vp467.htm>.

Steinberg, ‘Rediscovering Deterrence After September 11, 2001’.

Herbert Simon, quoted in Richard Lebow and Janice Stein, ‘Rational Deterrence Theory: I Think, Therefore I Deter’, World Politics, Vol.42. No.2 (Jan. 1989), p.215.

Paul K. Davis and Brian Michael Jenkins, Deterrence and Influence in Counter-Terrorism (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2002), p.15.

‘President Details Project BioShield’, Office of the Press Secretary, White House, 3 February 2003, available at ⟨http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/02/20030203.html⟩.

Jay Davis, The Grand Challenges of Counter-Terrorism (Center for Global Security Research, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, 2001), available at <http://cgsr.llnl.gov/future2001/davis.html>.

USS Cole Commission Report US Department of Defense (9 Jan. 2001), Executive Summary available at: ⟨http://www.fas.org/irp/threat/cole.htm⟩.

See Anthony H. Cordesman, Asymmetric Warfare Versus Counterterrorism: Rethinking CBRN and CIP Defense and Response (Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dec. 2000), p.14.

Alexander George and Richard Smoke, ‘Deterrence and Foreign Policy’, World Politics, Vol.41, No.2 (Jan. 1989), p.182.

Alexander George and Richard Smoke, ‘Deterrence and Foreign Policy’, World Politics, Vol.41, No.2 (Jan. 1989), p.173.

Steinberg, ‘Rediscovering Deterrence After September 11’.

Statement on ‘Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats’, Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President of the RAND Corporation, before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats (15 Nov. 2001), p.4.

Statement on ‘Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats’, Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President of the RAND Corporation, before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats (15 Nov. 2001), p.9.

Statement on ‘Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats’, Brian Michael Jenkins, Senior Advisor to the President of the RAND Corporation, before the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats (15 Nov. 2001), p.8.

Statement on ‘Anthrax Attacks, Biological Terrorism and Preventive Responses’, John Parachini, Policy Analyst, RAND Washington Office, before the Subcommittee on Technology, Terrorism and Government Information, Nov. 2001, p.8. See RAND Testimony, CT-186, Nov. 2001 <http://www.rand.org/>.

Jenkins ‘Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats’, p.6.

Christopher H. Achen and Duncan Snidal, ‘Rational Deterrence Theory and Comparative Case Studies’, World Politics, Vol.41, No.2 (Jan. 1989) p.153.

Robert Jervis, ‘Rational Deterrence: Theory and Evidence’, World Politics, Vol.41, No.2 (Jan. 1989) p.196.

Jervis, ‘Rational Deterrence’, p.196.

Steinberg, ‘Rediscovering Deterrence After September 11, 2001’.

Philip B. Heymann, Terrorism and America: A Commonsense Strategy for a Democratic Society (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998) p.67.

Heymann, Terrorism and America, p.73.

Heymann, Terrorism and America, p.70.

Lebow and Stein, ‘Rational Deterrence Theory’, p.215.