Great Power Security Dilemmas for Pivotal Middle Power Bridging

Abstract

By theoretically and empirically examining regional middle power influence, this article explores how particular middle powers emerge pivotally to affect great powers. Clearly, middle powers like Poland and South Korea cannot act effectively alone. But they are at the centre of greater power disputes and must insulate themselves from great power alignments to preserve independence and prosperity. Even with their frequent predicaments, such as limited resources and modest power capabilities, middle powers can influence great power security dilemmas, and even can reduce those dilemmas through regional and cooperative bridging alignments.

This analysis of the Republic of Poland and the Republic of South Korea demonstrates why their other-help foreign policy alignment pivotally affects great-power self-help security dilemmas. Examining other-help security alignments for specialized, regional, and bridge building by these pivotal middle powers at the twentieth century's end reveals important insights into their 21^st-century impact. This article also extends the insights of self-help in international relations, showing how Poland and South Korea tried to reduce regional great power security dilemmas differently in the 1990s. Thus, analysis of theoretical and foreign policy alignments that Poland and South Korea promoted towards their neighbours in the early 1990s and late 1990s, respectively focuses on extending international relations theory for other-help middle power bridging. This analysis shows how democratized and globally integrative middle powers like Poland and South Korea do, in fact, influence some of the 21st century's most important security challenges, particularly lessening great power security dilemmas.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This article builds on Joshua B. Spero, Bridging the European Divide: Middle Power Politics and Regional Security Dilemmas (Lanham: Rowman & Littlefield, 2004). The author would like to thank Alex Allrich, Galia P. Bar-Nathan Steven Brooks, Eric Budd, Steven Burgess, Rodney Christy, Stephen Flynn, Sean Goodlett, Jessica Guiney Glover, Mariusz Handzlik, Ian James, David Kang, Sean Kay, Bogdan Kipling, Jacob Kipp, Benjamin Lieberman, Robert McGrath, Ryan McNutt, Andrew Michta, Michael Miner, Robert Pape, Bruce Parrott, Philip Petersen, Nicole Pieratos, Daryl Press, Ilya Prizel, Arthur Rachwald, Jeffrey Simon, Matthew Skinner, Ellen Spero, Janet Spero, Robert Spero, Alan Stolberg, Steven Szabo, Jeffrey Taliaferro, Michael Turk, Paul Weizer, Christianne Wohlforth, William Wohlforth, and Peter Zwack in addition to three anonymous readers and Contemporary Security Policy co-editor, Aaron Karp.

Notes

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‘Security dilemma’ defines how states perceive themselves and how they initiate actions toward or respond to the actions of other states that frequently lessen security. See, especially, John H. Herz, Political Realism and Political Idealism: A Study in Theories and Realities (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1959), p. 4; Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976), p. 66; Charles L. Glaser, ‘The Security Dilemma Revisited’, World Politics, Vol. 50, No. 1 (October 1997), pp. 191, 197; Charles L. Glaser and John C. Matthews, III, ‘Correspondence: Current Gains and Future Outcomes’, International Security, Vol. 21, No. 4 (Spring 1997), pp. 192–7.

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Walt, The Origin of Alliances (note 4), pp. 28–33, and ‘Alliance Formation in Southwest Asia,’ in Robert Jervis and Jack Snyder (eds), Dominoes and Bandwagons: Strategic Beliefs and Great Power Competition in the Eurasian Rimland (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1991), pp. 52–3.

Great debate still exists about balancing and Bandwagoning. In addition to those works mentioned above, see Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1997).

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Schroeder, ‘Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory’ (note 9), pp. 116–17; and Thomas J. Christensen and Jack Snyder, ‘Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity’, International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Spring 1990), pp. 137–9, 167–8. See also Paul W. Schroeder, The Transformation of European Politics, 1763–1848 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994).

Schroeder, ‘Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory’ (note 9), pp. 117–18, 124–5; Glen H. Snyder, ‘Alliances, Balance, and Stability’, International Organization, Vol. 45, No. 1 (Winter 1991), pp. 128–31.

Schroeder, ‘Historical Reality vs. Neo-realist Theory’ (note 9), pp. 125–7.

Schweller, Deadly Imbalances (note 4), pp. 65–71, 191–2.

Schweller, Deadly Imbalances (note 4), pp. 71–7, 83–91. In addition to the authors cited, for antagonistic or aggressive versus cooperative or conciliatory alignments, see, inter alia: Robert Axelrod, The Complexity of Cooperation: Agent-Based Models of Competition and Collaboration (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1997); Stephen Van Evera, Causes of War: Power and the Roots of Conflict (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1999); and Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics.

This middle power politics paradigm draws particularly on some of the broader arguments focused on great powers in Waltz, Theory of International Politics (note 4), Walt, The Origin of Alliances (note 4), Snyder, Myths of Empire; Schroeder, The Transformation of European Politics 1763–1848; Jonathan Mercer, Reputation and International Politics (Cornell University Press, 1996); and Schweller, Deadly Imbalances.

Mercer, ‘Anarchy and Identity’ (note 9), pp. 233–6; Elman and Elman, ‘Correspondence’ (note 9), p. 188.

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Compared with Poland: Germany (landmass 137,821 square miles, population 82.8 million), Ukraine (landmass 233,090 square miles, population 49.8 million), and Russia (landmass 6.5 million square miles, population 147.5 million); compared with South Korea: North Korea (landmass 47,000 square miles, population 22.7 million); Japan (landmass 145,902 square miles, population 127.4 million), and China (landmass 3.7 million square miles, population 1.3 billion). ‘Geographical Locations, Background Notes’, www.state.gov/www/backgroundnotes/eurbgnhhtml (accessed 20 January 2001) and http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/2800.htm (accessed 30 September 2006). See also Jeffrey S. Kopstein and David A. Reilly, ‘Geographic Diffusion and the Transformation of the Postcommunist World’, World Politics, Vol. 53, No. 1 (October 2000), pp. 1–37.

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Roman Kuzniar, ‘Polish Foreign Policy: An Attempt at an Overview’, in Barbara Wizimirska (ed.) (Warsaw: Polish Institute of International Affairs, 1994), pp. 17–20; ‘Epilog: Przemowienie Prezydenta Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej’ [Speech by the Polish President] in Krzysztof Skubiszewski, Polityka Zagraniczna i Odzyskanie Niepodleglosci: Przemowienie, Oswiadczenia, Wywiady 1989–1993 [Foreign Policy and Independence Regained: Speeches, Declarations, Interviews] (Warsaw: Interpress, 1997), p. 397.

‘Middle Powers and Korean Normalization’, Northeast Asia Peace and Security Network: Policy Forum Online, The Nautilus Institute, #10 – October 3, 1997, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/10a_Dunk_McKay.html#sect1 (accessed on 31 December 2008); Charles K. Armstrong, Korean Society: Civil Society, Democracy, and the State (London: Routledge, 2002); Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, Development, Democracy, and Welfare States: Latin America, East Asia, and Eastern Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008).

Kim Dae-jung, ‘What Is the Sunshine Policy?’, 2000, Office of the President, South Korea, http://15cwd.pa.go.kr/english/diplomacy/kr_ph/dip03_1_4.php (accessed on 28 December 2008).

Larry Diamond and Doh Chull Shin (eds), Institutional Reform and Democratic Consolidation in Korea (Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press, 2000); Peter J. Katzenstein, and Allen Carlson (eds), Rethinking Security in East Asia: Identity, Power and Efficiency (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2004); Andrew Yoo. ‘Signaling Democracy: Patron-Client Relations and Democratization in South Korea and Poland’, Journal of East Asian Studies, Vol. 6, No. 2 (May 2006), pp. 259–87.

Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross (eds), Engaging China: The Management of an Emerging Power (London: Routledge, 1999); Carolyn W. Pumphrey (ed.) The Rise of China in Asia: Security Implications (Carlisle Barracks, PA: U.S. Army War College, 2002); David Shambaugh. ‘China Engages Asia: Reshaping the Regional order’, International Security, Vol. 29, No. 3 (Winter 2004/2005), pp. 64–99; David C. Kang. China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007); David Shambaugh and Michael Yahuda (eds), International Relations of Asia (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2008).

Stephan Haggard and Robert R. Kaufman, The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1995); Scott Snyder, ‘Challenges of Building a Korean Peace Process: Political and Economic Transition on the Korean Peninsula’, United States Institute of Peace Special Report, No. 30 (June 1998); Eun Mee Kim (ed.), The Four Asian Tigers: Economic Development and the Global Political Economy (San Diego, CA: Academic Press, 1998).

Michael O'Hanlon and Mike Mochizuki, Crisis on the Korean Peninsula: How to Deal With a Nuclear North Korea (New York: McGraw-Hill, 2003); Selig S. Harrison. Korean Endgame: A Strategy for Reunification and U.S. Disengagement (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002); T.J. Pempel. Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2004).

Muthiah Alagappa (ed.), Asian Security Order: Instrumental and Normative Features (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2003); G. John Ikenberry and Michael Mastanduno (eds), International Relations Theory and the Asia-Pacific (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003).

Marcus Noland, Sherman Robinson, and Li-gang Liu, The Costs and Benefits of Korean Unification (Stanford, CA: Asia/Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, March 1998); Sukyong Choi, ‘Divided States: Reunifying without Conquest’, in I. William Zartman (ed.), Preventive Negotiation: Avoiding Conflict Escalation (Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2000), pp. 91–112.

David C. Kang, ‘Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytic Frameworks’, International Security, Vol. 27, No. 4 (Summer 2003), pp. 57–85.

Hong Soon-young, ‘Thawing Korea's Cold War: The Path to Peace on the Korean Peninsula’, Foreign Affairs (May/June 1999), http://fullaccess.foreignaffairs.org/19990501facomment975/hong-soon-young/thawing-korea-s-cold-war-the-path-to-peace-on-the-korean-peninsula.html (accessed 1 September 2006). See also David Shambaugh (ed.), Power Shift: China and Asia's New Dynamics (Berkeley: University of California Press, 2005).

Robert S. Ross, ‘The Geography of the Peace: East Asia in the Twenty-first Century’, International Security, Vol. 23, No. 4 (Spring 1999), pp. 81–118; Yu Bin, Containment by Stealth: Chinese Views of and Policies toward America's Alliances with Japan and Korea after the Cold War (Stanford, CA: Asia/Pacific Research Center, Stanford University, September 1999); Victor D. Cha, Alignment Despite Antagonism: The United States-Korea-Japan Security Triangle (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1999); Yoichi Funabashi (ed.), Reconciliation in the Asia-Pacific (Washington, DC: USIP Press Books, 2003).

Daniel C. Sanford, South Korea and the Socialist Countries: The Politics of Trade (New York: St. Martin's, 1990); Muthiah Alagappa (ed.), Asian Security Practice: Material and Ideational Influences (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 1998); Victor D. Cha and David C. Kang, Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (New York: Columbia University Press, 2003); Nicholas Eberstadt and Richard J. Ellings (eds), Korea's Future and the Great Powers (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2002); Jae Ho Chung, ‘South Korea Between Eagle and Dragon: Perceptual Ambivalence and Strategic Dilemma’, Asian Survey, Vol. 41, No. 5 (2001), pp. 777–96.

Kim Dae-jung and Kim Jong-il, ‘The South-North Joint Declaration: Analysis and Prospects’, 15 June 2000, Office of the President, South Korea, http://15cwd.pa.go.kr/english/diplomacy/sn_kr_2000/bg_m_1.php (accessed on 28 December 2008); Esther Pan, ‘South Korea's Ties with China, Japan, and the U.S.: Defining a New Role in a Dangerous Neighborhood’, Council on Foreign Relations, 8 February 2006, http://www.cfr.org/publication/9808/ (accessed on 28 December 2008); John Feffer, ‘South Korea: Still Dreaming of Regionalism’, Inter-Press Service Asia-Europe: Bridges from Asia, 3 October 2008, http://www.ipsnewsasia.net/bridgesfromasia/node/129 (accessed on 28 December 2008).

Kim Dae-jung, ‘The Kim Dae-jung Administration's Engagement Policy Toward North Korea’, Office of the President, South Korea, 2000, http://15cwd.pa.go.kr/english/diplomacy/sn_kr_2000/bg_m_4.php (accessed on 28 December 2008); Scott Snyder, Ralph Cossa, and Brad Glosserman, ‘Whither the Six-Party Talks?’, USIPeace Briefing, May 2006, http://www.usip.org/pubs/specialreports/early/Korea.html (accessed on 28 December 2008); Lee Hudson Teslik, ‘Interview – Kang: North Korean Trade Potential’, 17 December 2007, Council on Foreign Relations, https://secure.www.cfr.org/publication/15056/kang.html?breadcrumb=%2Fregion%2F277%2Fsouth_korea (accessed on 28 December 2008); Jeffrey Robertson, ‘Middle Powers and Korean Normalization: An Australian Perspective Revisited’, Policy Forum Online 08–034A, The Nautilus Institute, 30 April 2008, http://www.nautilus.org/fora/security/08034Robertson.html#sect3.

Arthur A. Stein, Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1990); Stephen M. Walt, Revolution and War (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996); Randall L. Schweller and William C. Wohlforth, ‘Power Test: Evaluating Realism in Response to the End of the Cold War’, Security Studies, Vol. 9, No. 3 (Spring 2000), pp. 60–107; Robert A. Pape, ‘Soft Balancing against the United States’, International Security, Vol. 30, No. 1 (Summer 2005), pp. 7–45.

Mark Kramer, ‘Neorealism, Nuclear Proliferation, and East-Central European Strategies’, in Ethan B. Kapstein and Michael Mastanduno (eds), Unipolar Politics: Realism and State Strategies after the Cold War (New York: Columbia University Press, 1999), pp. 437–8, 462; Chase, Hill, and Kennedy, The Pivotal States.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, The Grand Failure: The Birth and Death of Communism in the Twentieth Century (New York: Collier, 1989); Philip Zelikow and Condoleezza Rice, Germany Unified and Europe Transformed: A Study in Statecraft (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1998); Hajda, Ukraine in the World (note 60); Angela Stent, Russia and Germany Reborn: Unification, the Soviet Collapse, and the New Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1999); Wallander, Mortal Friends, Best Enemies (note 53).

Renée De Nevers, Comrades No More: The Seeds of Change in Eastern Europe (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 2003).

Linda Jakobson, ‘The Korean Peninsula: Is Kim Dae-jung's Pursuit of a Korean Confederation Realistic?’, Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Working Articles, 21 (1999); H.E. Dr Kim Woo-sang, Ambassador of the Republic of Korea, ‘Korea's Middle Power Foreign Policy in the 21st Century’, The Australian National University, 30 September 2008, http://www.anu.edu.au/discoveranu/content/podcasts/koreas_middle_power_foreign_policy_in_the_21st_century/ (accessed on 31 December 2008).

Glaser, ‘Realists as Optimists’ (note 9), p. 123.

P. Terrence Hopmann, The Negotiation Process and the Resolution of International Conflicts (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1996).

Brian Frederking, ‘Constructing Post–Cold War Collective Security’, American Political Science Review, Vol. 97, No. 3 (August 2003), pp. 363–78.

‘Multinational Division Central-South’, Multi National Corps – Iraq, 30 October 2006, http://www.piomndcs.mil.pl/ and http://www.mnfiraq.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=294&Itemid=27 (accessed on 30 October 2006).

Pew Global Attitudes Project, ‘America's Image Further Erodes, Europeans Want Weaker Ties’, 18 March 2003, http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=175 (accessed on 30 October 2006); Pew Global Attitudes Project, ‘Views of a Changing World 2003’, 3 June 2003, http://pewglobal.org/reports/display.php?ReportID=185 (accessed on 30 October 2006).

NATO's PFP process defines a practical cooperative security framework between NATO and individual non-NATO PFP states (former Warsaw Pact, Soviet Republic, and neutral states). Military or non-military contributions include NATO operations in Bosnia, Albania, Kosovo, and Macedonia. See Report to Congress on Implementation of the Partnership for Peace Initiative (Washington, DC: Department of State, 1998), pp. 18–19; United States Security Strategy for Europe and NATO (Washington, DC: Department of Defense, 1995), pp. 10–12; and Joshua B. Spero, ‘Paths to Peace for NATO's Partnerships in Eurasia’, in S. Victor Papacosma, James Sperling, and Sean Kay (eds), Limiting Institutions: The Challenge of Eurasian Security (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 2003), pp. 166–84.

Juan J. Linz, and Alfred Stepan, Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America, and Post-Communist Europe (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1996); Karen Dawisha and Bruce Parrott (eds), The Consolidation of Democracy in East-Central Europe: Democratization and Authoritarianism in Post-Communist Societies (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 1997); Vladimir Tismaneanu, Fantasies of Salvation: Democracy, Nationalism, and Myth in Post-Communist Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998); Zoltan D. Barany and Robert G. Moser (eds), Ethnic Politics After Communism (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2005).

Amitav Acharya and Alastair Iain Johnson (eds), Crafting Cooperation: Regional International Institutions in Comparative Perspective (Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

For example: Jonathan H. Ping, Middle Power Statecraft: Indonesia, Malaysia And the Asia Pacific (Hampshire, UK: Ashgate Publishing, 2005); Bernard Fook Weng, Middle Powers and Accidental Wars: A Study in Conventional Strategic Stability (Lewiston, NY: Edwin Mellen Press, 2005); Douglas Roche, ‘28 States Participate: Inaugural “Article VI Forum”’, Middle Powers Initiative: Report and Brief, United Nations, New York (November 2005).