The Legacy of the ‘Coloured Revolutions’: The Case of Kazakhstan

Abstract

In the second decade of independence, the Kazakh regime, which throughout the 1990s had been thriving on patrimonial networks, began showing signs of moving away from these established patterns. In response to the rise of a pro-business opposition at the beginning of the 2000s, the regime attempted to co-opt small and medium-sized businesses across the country and began setting up state-led business bodies. The process of co-opting Kazakh businesses through the regime-established institutions accelerated in the years following the events of 2004 in Ukraine and 2005 in neighbouring Kyrgyzstan. The acceleration has been the most important long-term structural legacy of the coloured revolutions in post-soviet Kazakhstan. The introduction of the new type of state–business relations aims at creating conditions for a predictable transition of power and guaranteeing the long-term durability of the existing power structure.

Notes

The term ‘semi-authoritarianism’ was coined by Marina Ottaway in order to describe some undemocratic regimes that were born in the post-1991 world, including post-soviet Kazakhstan: Marina Ottaway, Democracy Challenged: The Rise of Semi-Authoritarianism (Washington, DC: Carnegie, 2003). For a further discussion on the nature of the political regimes that came to existence in Kazakhstan and other Central Asian republics in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union, see Michael McFaul, ‘The Fourth Wave of Democracy and Dictatorship: Noncooperative Transition on the Post-communist World’, World Politics, Vol.54, No.2 (2002), pp.212–44; Thomas Carothers, ‘The End of the Transition Paradigm’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.13, No.1 (2002), pp.5–21; Larry J. Diamond, ‘Thinking About Hybrid Regimes’, Journal of Democracy, Vol.12, No.2 (2002), pp.21–35; Valerie Bunce, ‘Rethinking Recent Democratization: Lessons from the Postcommunist Experience’, World Politics, Vol.55, No.2 (2003), pp.167–92.

See Sally N. Cummings, ‘Kazakhstan: An Uneasy Relationship – Power and Authority in the Nazarbaev Regime’, in Sally N. Cumming (ed.), Power and Change in Central Asia (London: Routledge, 2002), pp.59–74.

John Ishiyama, ‘Neopatrimonialism and the Prospects for Democratization in the Central Asian Republics’, in Sally N. Cummings (ed.), Power and Change in Central Asia (London: Routledge, 2002), pp.42–58 (p.49).

In 1994, Azerbaijan signed a production-sharing agreement (PSA) with 11 shareholders for the development of the Azeri–Chirag–Gunashli (ACG) oilfields, located offshore in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea. The project is operated by the Azerbaijan International Operating Company (AICO). At that time, when the PSAs were finalized, the press called this ‘the Contract of the Century’, as almost $8 billion were earmarked for investment over 30 years, during which 511 million tons of oil were expected to be produced from the three offshore fields: see Nasib Nassibli, ‘Azerbaijan: Oil and Politics in the Country's Future’, in Michael P. Croissant and Bulent Aras (ed.), Oil and Geopolitics in the Caspian Sea Region (London: Praeger, 1999), pp.101–31 (p.107).

Turkmenistan was a major supplier of natural gas in the Soviet Union, its share exceeding 24 per cent as early as 1970, and rising to just below 33 per cent by 1975: see Robert Ebel, ‘Introduction’, in Robert Ebel (ed.), Caspian Energy Resources: Implications for the Arab Gulf (Abu Dhabi: The Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2000), pp.1–12 (p.4).

A ‘giant’ field is one that contains between 500 million and 5 billion barrels of oil in reserves. Tengiz is estimated to contain more than 3.3 billion tons of oil, which is as much as Algeria's total reserves: see Matthew Sagers, ‘The Oil Industry in the Southern-Tier Former Soviet Republics’, Post-Soviet Geography, Vol.35, No.5 (1994), pp.267–98 (pp.275 and 278).

Chevron agreed to pay $420 million for its 50 per cent and to invest $1.5 billion during the first three years of the project; for further discussion see Anne E. Peck, Economic Development in Kazakhstan: The Role of Large Enterprises and Foreign Investment (London: RoutledgeCurzon, 2004).

In the first quarter of 2002 foreign investors underwrote 80 per cent of Kazakhstan's oil production: see Theresa Sabonis-Helf, ‘The Rise of the Post-Soviet Petro-States: Energy Exports and Domestic Governance in Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan’, in Daniel L. Burghart and Theresa Sabonis-Helf (eds.), In the Tracks of Tamerlane: Central Asia's Path to the 21st Century (Washington, DC: Center for Technology and National Security Policy, 2004), pp.159–86.

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Additional information

Notes on contributors

Wojciech Ostrowski

Wojciech Ostrowski recently completed a PhD at the School of International Relations, University of St Andrews. He is currently completing a book entitled Politics and Oil in Kazakhstan, to be published by Routledge in 2009.