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Abstract
Assessing the first four years of EU membership on Estonian party politics indicates that following accession EU perspectives on policies and European policy specialists in small countries may remain sidelined in the decision-making processes within political parties because of the mechanical effects of small numbers of such specialists. At the same time, European parliament elections add an additional event to the electoral calendar and the novel role of MEPs has a potential to affect domestic political competition. However, the constraints posed by common policies may be weakened by the overwhelming domestic concerns of political parties as an analysis of the anatomy of the failure to adopt the single currency shows.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The author wishes to thank the foreign secretaries of two Estonian parties, Karsten Staehr and participants in the ECPR 2007 General Conference panel in Pisa and the 2008 CEELBAS-funded workshop in London for helpful advice. The usual disclaimer applies. The surveys conducted by the Department of Political Science, University of Tartu were sponsored by the Targeted Financing Grant 0182573 from the Estonian Ministry of Education and Science.
Notes
Peter Mair, ‘The Limited Impact of Europe on National Party Systems’, West European Politics, Vol.23, No.4 (2000), pp.27–51.
Thomas Poguntke, Nicholas Aylott, Robert Ladrech and Kurt Richard Luther, ‘The Europeanisation of National Party Organisations: A Conceptual Analysis’, European Journal of Political Research, Vol.46, No.6 (2007), pp.747–71.
Zsolt Enyedi and Paul G. Lewis, ‘The Impact of the European Union on Party Politics in Central and Eastern Europe’, in Paul G. Lewis and Zdenka Mansfeldová (eds.), The European Union and Party Politics in Central and Eastern Europe (Basingstoke: Palgrave, 2006), pp.231–50; Paul G. Lewis, ‘EU Enlargement and Party Systems in Central Europe’, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, Vol.21, No.2 (2005), pp.171–99.
The environmentally controversial oil shale is the basis for Estonian electricity production and exports. There are plans to build a new nuclear plant in Lithuania as a joint venture between the Baltic States and possibly including Poland. Local electricity production has been a prominent issue as the Baltic States are not properly linked to the EU electricity grids.
Maurice Duverger, Political Parties: Their Organization and Activity in the Modern State (New York: Wiley, 1954); Rein Taagepera and Matthew S. Shugart, Seats and Votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems (New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 1989); Arend Lijphart, Electoral Systems and Party Systems: A Study of Twenty-seven Democracies, 1945–1990 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995).
Similar arguments have been advanced by Mair, ‘The Limited Impact’, and Mark Blyth and Richard S. Katz, ‘From Catch-all Politics to Cartelization: The Political Economy of the Cartel Party’, West European Politics, Vol.28, No.1 (2005), pp.33–60.
Cf. Juliet Johnson, ‘The Remains of Conditionality: The Faltering Enlargement of the Euro Zone’, Journal of European Public Policy, Vol.15, No.6 (2008), pp.826–41.
Robert Ladrech, ‘Europeanization and Political Parties: Towards a Framework for Analysis’, Party Politics, Vol.8, No.4 (2002), pp.389–403.
In 2004, the Centre Party was insisting on holding a referendum on the issue, but the issue had been dropped in the 2005 coalition agreement between the Reform, Centre and People's Union.
Evald Mikkel and Andres Kasekamp, ‘Emerging Party Realignment? Party-based Euroscepticism in Estonia’, paper presented at the European Consortium for Political Research Joint Sessions, Turin, 22–27 March 2002, pp.14–5; Paul Taggart and Aleks Szczerbiak, ‘Contemporary Euroscepticism in the Party Systems of the European Union Candidate States of Central and Eastern Europe’, European Journal of Political Research, Vol.43, No.1 (2004), pp.1–27.
The surveys were conducted by the Department of Political Science, University of Tartu (N=1,606 and N=1,008 respectively).
Another explanation is that the term ‘further unification’ in the survey questionnaire was understood in geographical terms by some: it referred to Romanian and Bulgarian membership in 2004, and to the future membership of Turkey or Croatia in 2007.
‘Kaitse Eesti krooni, vali Rahvaliit’ [‘Defend the Estonian Crown, Vote for the People's Union’], the 2004 European parliament election manifesto, adopted by the Council of the People's Union on 25 Feb. 2004.
‘Võrdsete võimaluste Eesti!’ [‘Estonia of Equal Opportunities!’], the 2007 parliamentary election manifesto. This finding is in line with other country studies in this collection.
See Evald Mikkel and Geoffrey Pridham, ‘Clinching the “Return to Europe”: The Referendums on EU Accession in Estonia and Latvia’, West European Politics, Vol.27, No.4 (2004), pp.716–48.
For example, the Czech Republic: see Lukáš Linek and Zdenka Mansfeldová, ‘The Impact of the EU on the Czech Party System’, in Lewis and Mansfeldová (eds.), The European Union and Party Politics, pp.20–39.
No relationship was found in Lithuania and Slovenia, and the inverse relationship was found in the case of Hungary: see the relevant chapters by Duvold and Jurkynas, Alenka Krašovec et al., and Zsolt Enyedi in Lewis and Mansfeldová (eds.), The European Union and Party Politics.
See Allan Sikk, ‘From “Sexy Men” to “Socialist Gone Nuts”: The European Union and Estonian Party Politics’, in Lewis and Mansfeldová (eds.), The European Union and Party Politics, pp.40–63. The coefficient of determination (R 2) between party supporters' mean positions on the EU and on the left–right scale increased from 0.43 to 0.46.
Taggart and Szczerbiak, ‘Contemporary Euroscepticism’, p.13.
In a few cases, party programmes from the same period have been used if election manifestos were not available.
It should be stressed that the list of issues is partly a simplification. While the parties stressed those issues slightly more than the others, each of the manifestos had other references to EU policies and most of the topics listed were also found in manifestos of other parties.
Taggart and Szczerbiak, ‘Contemporary Euroscepticism’, p.10.
The disastrous European elections made things worse for Res Publica, which was already losing popularity. The increase in the Reform Party's popularity is difficult to link with the EU – except indirectly, as the prime minister's party in 2007 was successful in turning the post-accession economic growth into votes.
See note 5 above.
First mentioned in Lijphart, Electoral Systems and Party Systems, pp.182–3.
The average magnitude at the first tier is 8.4 corresponding to T e=8 per cent but the seat distribution is determined by votes at the nationwide tier of M=101 that would yield a T e lower than 5 per cent.
Res Publica was inconsistent regarding its stance on the EU compared with a referendum on membership; the soft Eurosceptic People's Union may have fallen victim to the fact that mostly the Euro-enthusiasts participated in the election.
Kallas had a surprisingly active role in the Reform Party's 2009 European Parliament election campaign, see Allan Sikk, ‘The 2009 European Elections in Estonia’, EPERN European Parliament Election Briefing No. 41, available at: <http://www.sussex.ac.uk/sei/documents/epernep2009estonia.pdf>, accessed 12 Oct. 2009.
Kai Kalamees, ‘Ülekaalukalt suurima toetusega Toomas Hendrik Ilves tõusis rahva uueks lemmikuks üleöö’ [‘Overwhelming Front-runner Toomas Hendrik Ilves became the Popular Favourite Overnight’], Eesti Päevaleht, 13 April 2006.
Reform Party, Res Publica, Pro Patria, Social Democrats.
The lack of co-operation impeded presenting a common candidate to oppose Rüütel, who was controversial as he had held several high offices during the communist era.
Ilves and Ene Ergma were presented as candidates in consecutive rounds in the parliament. Eventually, Ilves defeated Rüütel by a narrow margin in the electoral college. For more on the 2006 elections see Vello Pettai, ‘Estonia’, European Journal of Political Research, Political Data Yearbook, Vol.46, Nos.7–8 (2007), pp.943–8.
Her position helped the party to be more conveniently represented at the top level in the meetings of the presidency of the Party of European Socialists.
While none of the party chairs was a member of the EAC, only two parties (People's Union and the spokesmen of the Greens) had their leaders represented in the parliament – those of other parliamentary parties were ministers (incompatible with the position of an MP) or mayors (Edgar Savisaar, the Centre Party leader, was a mayor of Tallinn).
Four flights a week in July 2007, five in October 2008.
Some of the figures in this section may be artificially low. Andres Tarand (Social Democrat MEP) is not a board member but is effectively co-opted as he reports to the board as the head of the party's delegation to the European parliament. There is also evidence that some members of the Greens' board are engaged in EU-related work even though the party formally has only one EPS. On the other hand, the expertise of those board members who are formally counted as EPSs cannot be taken for granted.
The Committees of Budgetary Control, Internal Market and Consumer Protection, and Petitions.
Sikk, ‘From “Sexy Men”’, p.58.
Gunta Sloga Briselē and Ināra Egle, ‘Krasts neizslēdz iespēju pamest politiku’ [‘Krasts does not Rule Out Leaving Politics’], Diena, 16 April 2008. An Estonian insider speculated to the author that the Latvian delegation split up because all four MEPs wished to be re-elected but were sceptical about their party's ability to repeat their success. If that was the case, the impact of European elections on party systems may indeed take spectacular forms.
Alo Raun, ‘Strandberg: oleme depositsioonis’ [‘Strandberg: We are in Deposition’], Postimees Online, 23 March 2007.
Formerly the Christian People's Party.
In April 2007, 47 per cent of Estonians desired the adoption of the euro as late as possible, whereas only 15 per cent wished for the adoption as soon as possible; the respective means for all new member states were 31 and 24. Similarly to all new member states (64 per cent), the majority of Estonians (58 per cent) incorrectly believed that the country has a choice in whether or not to adopt the euro: see ‘Introduction of the Euro in the New Member States: Analytical Report’, Flash Eurobarometer 2007, European Commission, May 2007. The lack of enthusiasm and high levels of ignorance will leave ample room for governments to manipulate the public.
‘Adopting the Euro in the New Member States’, EurActive, available at: <http://www.euractiv.com/en/enlargement/adopting-euro-new-member-states/article-129655>, accessed 26 July 2007.
No more than 1.5 percentage points higher than the three best-performing member states of the EU.
Mikkel and Pridham, ‘Clinching the “Return to Europe”’.
Beside benchmarks on inflation, budget deficits and government debt, the countries aspiring to introduce the euro have to conform to exchange rate stability and interest rate convergence criteria.
Together with Slovenia and Slovakia, the Baltic states have been pacesetters in the process of euro adoption in contrast to the ‘laggards’ (Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary): see Johnson, ‘The Remains of Conditionality’.
The uniform tax rate decreased from 26 to 22 per cent from 2003 to 2007, with a further drop to 18 per cent planned by 2011. The monthly tax-free allowance increased from 1,000 to 2,000 EEK (64–128 euro), while an increase to 3,000 EEK (192 euro) is expected.
IMF, ‘Article IV Mission to Estonia – Concluding Statement’, 25 Aug. 2006, available at: <http://www.imf.org/external/np/ms/2006/082506.htm>, accessed 2 July 2009.
Statistics Estonia, Statistical Database: Economy – Wages and Salaries and Labour Costs – Wages and Salaries, available at: <http://pub.stat.ee>, accessed 3 Aug. 2007.