The International Economic Crisis and the 2010 Presidential Elections in Ukraine

Abstract

The international financial crisis of 2007–9 had a significant impact upon the context, agenda and outcome of the 2010 Ukrainian presidential elections. Among the main reasons for Viktor Yanukovych's success in winning the election were his business-friendly policies, his advocacy of stability and his pro-Russian orientation. His platform chimed with the sentiments of large numbers of voters who were taking a defensive posture in the face of a year-long recession. Yuliya Tymoshenko was treated – and punished – because as the incumbent prime minister she failed to utilize the resources available to her government, including a large IMF loan, to bring the recession to a halt and stimulate a recovery. Viktor Yushchenko was rejected by the electorate because he was increasingly regarded as a president incapable of co-operative relations either with his own government or with the Russian government. These capacities in a president were seen by the electorate as indispensable for tackling the crisis.

Notes

Ukrainian Central Election Commission 2010, available at <http://www.cvk.gov.ua/pls/vp2010/WP0011>, accessed 15 March 2010.

Bohdan Danylyshyn, ‘Svitova finansova kryza – test dlia Ukrayiny’ [The world financial crisis: a test for Ukraine], Dzerkalo tyzhnia, 11–17 Oct. 2008, available at <http://www.dt.ua/1000/1550/64350>, accessed 16 Oct. 2008.

EBRD Transition Report 2009, at <http://www.ebrd.com/pubs/econo/tr09.htm>, accessed 12 Dec. 2009; Andrew Mac, ‘Foreign Direct Investment Drives Growth in Ukraine’, Magisters Insight September 2008 Newsletter, available at <http://www.magisters.com/insight/2008-1fdi-drives-investment-in-ukraine>, accessed 12 Jan. 2010.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Anders Åslund, ‘Ukraine: Floating the hryvnia arms the National Bank to fight inflation now’, Kyiv Post, 3 April 2008, available at <http://www.unian.net/eng/news/news-245168.html>, accessed 22 June 2010.

Danylyshyn, ‘Svitova finansova kryza’.

For analysis of the Ukrainian currency crisis see EBRD Transition Report 2009 (note 3); see also Yuriy Skolotianiy, ‘Novi derzhbanky – use shche valiza bez ruchky?’ [New state banks – are they all like a suitcase without a handle?', Dzerkalo tyzhnia, 26 Dec. 2009–14 Jan. 2010, available at <http://www.dt.ua/2000/2040/68173>, accessed 15 March 2010.

‘Ukraine – the spectre of default’, Economist Intelligence Unit – Business Eastern Europe, 23 Feb. 2009.

Kontrakty, 2009, No.7 (16 Feb.); see also BYuT Inform Newsletter, 12 Dec. 2009.

Roman Kornyliuk, ‘Spivpratsia Ukrayiny z MVF: tsina pytannia’ [Collaboration of Ukraine with the IMF: the price of a question], Ekonomichna Pravda, 16 Nov. 2009, available at <http://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/4b011f720268f>, accessed 4 Dec. 2009.

Dzerkalo tyzhnia, 25–31 Oct. 2008, available at <http://www.dt.ua/2000/2020/64435>, accessed 29 Oct. 2008.

‘Memorandum Kabminu ta MBF’ [Memorandum of Cabinet of Ministers to IMF], Ekonomichna Pravda, 30 Oct. 2008, available at <http://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/4909aebce9644>, accessed 4 Nov. 2008.

Kornyliuk, ‘Spivpratsia Ukrayiny z MVF’.

BYuT Inform Newsletter, 4 Jan. 2010.

‘Tymoshenko obitsyaye vesele zhyttia kolyshnim vlasnykam bankiv’ [Tymoshenko promises sweet life to former bank-owners], Ukrayins'ka Pravda, 6 Aug. 2009, available at <http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/2009/08/6/4128348>, accessed 4 Jan. 2010.

See Tymoshenko's election platform, available at <http://www.tymoshenko.ua/uk/article/axeawa5s>, accessed 7 Jan. 2010.

Roman Olearchyk, ‘Ukraine polls point to comeback for Yanukovich’, Financial Times, 15 Jan. 2010.

L. Shanhina and V. Yurchyshyn, ‘Struktura dokhodiv i vytrat domohospodarstv “ne vidchula” kryzy’ [Structure of household incomes and expenditures ‘have not felt’ the crisis], Makroekonomichniy ohliad Ukrayiny, Dec. 2009, available at <http://www.uceps.org/ukr/article.php?news_id=743>, accessed 11 May 2011.

Ihor Zhdanov, ‘Holodni bunty v Ukrayini’ [Hunger rebellions in Ukraine], Dzerkalo tyzhnia, 28 Feb.–7 March 2009; see also the statement of the Federation of Trade Unions of Ukraine, available at <http://psigeneralsecretary.typepad.com/files/fpu_statement_23_09_2009_en.pdf>, accessed 14 Oct. 2009, and Profspilkovi Visti [Trade Union News], 9 Oct. 2009.

‘Krayina v nebezpetsi: sekretna dopovidna ministra finansiv na im'ya Tymoshenko’ [‘Country in danger’: finance minister's secret statement on behalf of Tymoshenko], Ekonomichna Pravda, 27 Jan. 2009, available at <http://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/497ee1f14c7d6>, accessed 13 Feb. 2009; Viktor Chyvokunia, ‘Minus 8%: MVF vymahaye vid Tymoshenko vyznaty ekonomichnu yamu’ [Minus 8%: IMF demands Tymoshenko acknowledge the economic hole], Ukrayins'ka Pravda, 13 Feb. 2009, available at <http://www.pravda.com.ua/articles/2009/02/13/3732266>, accessed 13 Feb. 2009.

Simon Tisdall, ‘EU turns away from Ukraine’, The Guardian, 25 Nov. 2009; Kornyliuk, ‘Spivpratsia Ukrayiny z MVF’.

Dzerkalo tyzhnia, 30 April–14 May 2010.

Skolotianiy, ‘Novi derzhbanky’.

‘Yuliya Tymoshenko bez vidpovidey’ [Yuliya Tymoshenko without answers', Ekonomichna Pravda 29 Dec. 2009, available at <http://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/2009/12/29/222531>, accessed 6 Jan. 2010.

Ibid.

‘Viktor Yanukovych bez vidpovidey’ [Viktor Yanukovych without answsers], Ekonomichna Pravda, 24 Dec. 2009, available at <http://www.epravda.com.ua/publications/4b336df7ee1f1>, accessed 6 Jan. 2010.

Mariusz Zavadski, ‘Tayemnycha ukrayinska borot'ba za prezydentstvo’ [The secret Ukrainian struggle for the presidency], available at <http://www.dostali.kiev.ua/ru/weprotect/1215.html?print=1>, accessed 4 Jan. 2010; this link is no longer functional.

‘Yanukovych: V Ukraine uzhe vyrabotalsya immunitet protiv diktatury’ [Yanukovych: In Ukraine immunity from dictatorship already elaborated], KID: Yugo-vostochnaia liga, available at <http://zadonbass.org/news/events/message_3290>, accessed 24 June 2010.

Ibid.

‘U Yanukovycha ponyali taynye plany MVF’ [Around Yanunovych they have understood the secret plans of the IMF]; PotokUA, available at <http://potok.in.ua/ukraine/1920-u-janukovicha-ponjali-tajjnye-plany-mvf.html>, accessed 7 Jan. 2010.

Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk, ‘Ukraine rivals clash among fraud fears’, Financial Times, 3 Feb. 2010.

Viktor Yushchenko's election platform, available at <http://tsn.ua/ukrayina/yushchenko-opublikuvav-peredviborchu-programu.htm>, accessed 16 Dec. 2009; this link is no longer functional.

‘Prezydent poperedzhaye shcho Ukrayina mozhe staty bankrutom v chervni’ [President warns that Ukraine can become bankrupt in June], Ukrayinska Pravda, available at <http://www.pravda.com.ua/news/4b49d82086cb0>, accessed 10 Jan. 2010.

Dzerkalo Tyzhnia, 6–12 March 2010, available at <http://www.dt.ua/2000/2020/68726>, accessed 9 March 2010.

The Guardian, 13 Jan. 2010, reported that Tyhipko had spent $11m on his election campaign.

Available at <http://tigipko.com/Programm>, accessed 4 May 2010.

Available at <http://tsn.ua/ukrayina/peredviborcha-programa-arseniya-yatsenyuka.html>, accessed 10 Jan. 2010.

Central Election Commission of Ukraine 2010.

A notable exception is Vlad Mykhnenko, ‘Class Voting and the Orange Revolution: A Cultural Political Economy Perspective on Ukraine's Electoral Geography’, Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, Vol.25, Nos.2–3 (2009), pp.278–96.

Vlad Mykhnenko and Adam Swain, ‘The Orange Revolution, Post-Soviet Development Models and Regional Trajectories’, European Urban and Regional Studies, Vol.17, No.2 (2010), pp.141–65.

Mykhnenko, ‘Class Voting and the Orange Revolution’.

‘Zovnishnia polityka Ukrayiny ochyma hromadian’ [Ukraine's foreign policy as seen by its citizens], Natsional'na Bezpeka i Oborona, Vol.2010, No.2 (113) (2010), pp.39–72.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Ivan Lozovy, ‘Yanukovych's Edge’, The Ukraine Insider, Vol.10, No.3 (4 Feb. 2010), p.1.

Russian investment first came into the Ukrainian economy in significant volumes as soon as the recovery began in 1999. It was aided and directed by Vladimir Putin, the new president, with a strategy to recover Russia's ‘near abroad’. On the early years of Russian capital's penetration of Ukraine see Marko Bojcun, Russia, Ukraine and European Integration, European University Institute Working Paper HEC No.2001/4 (San Domenico, Italy: EUI, 2001).

Kyiv Post, 1 Jan. 2010, available at <http://www.kyivpost.com/news/politics/detail/56302>, accessed 10 Jan. 2010; see also Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Oleachyk, ‘Ukraine's Oligarchs Place Their Bets’, Financial Times, 15 Jan. 2010.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Marko Bojcun

Marko Bojcun is Senior Lecturer in European Studies and International Relations at the London Metropolitan University, London, UK.