Lessons unlearned: Why coercive diplomacy failed at Rambouillet

Abstract

On 29 January 1999, the Contact Group of states that had monitored the Bosnian war summoned the Serbs and Kosovar Albanians to Rambouillet and presented them with an ultimatum: accept the proposed settlement by 21 February or face the use of military force. This article considers the use of coercive diplomacy at Rambouillet, and its attempt to replicate the conditions which produced the Dayton settlement in 1995. It will be argued that the environment in which the Rambouillet ultimatum was issued was considerably different from the permissive environment at Dayton. This meant that the use of the ultimatum, while appearing innovative and forward‐thinking, was actually untimely, misplaced and likely to fail.