From Bonn to London: Governance Challenges and the Future of Statebuilding in Afghanistan

Abstract

Following the four-year Bonn Agreement implementation period, from December 2001 to December 2005, the London Conference on Afghanistan was convened, 31 January–1 February, to reaffirm the commitment of world leaders to the next phase of statebuilding and reform in Afghanistan. The central document of this gathering, the Afghanistan Compact, sets forth a number of time-bound benchmarks for the next five years in the areas of security, governance and development. This article examines key aspects of the compact and what will be required for the government of Afghanistan to meet the various targets, along with the support of the international community. Policy recommendations are further advanced to facilitate reconstruction efforts and to sustain a sufficient level of international engagement to avert failure in Afghanistan.

Notes

1. The compact is the result of consultation between the government of Afghanistan, the United Nations and the international community, and it represents a framework for co-operation for the next five years. The agreement affirms the commitment of the government of Afghanistan and the international community to work towards conditions where the Afghan people can live in peace and security under the rule of law, with good governance and human rights protection for all, and they can enjoy sustainable economic and social development. The compact follows the formal end of the Bonn Process in September 2005, with completion of the Parliamentary and Provincial elections, and will establish an effective mechanism for co-ordinating Afghan and international efforts over the next period. The compact was launched on 31 January 2006 in London.

2. The Afghanistan Compact and the Interim ANDS are available at www.ands.gov.af.

3. For this conceptual framework for peace building, see Barnett R. Rubin, ‘Constructing Sovereignty for Security’, Survival, Vol.47, No.4, Winter 2005, pp.93–106.

4. The United States began building a ‘coalition of the willing’ against terrorism on 12 September 2001; there are currently 70 nations supporting the global war on terrorism. To date, 21 nations have deployed more than 16,000 troops to the US Central Command's region of responsibility. In Afghanistan, Coalition partners are contributing approximately 8,000 troops to Operation Enduring Freedom and to the ISAF in Kabul, accessed at www.centcom.mil/sites/uscentcom1/Shared%20Documents/Coalition.aspx.

5. Michael Bhatia et al., ‘Minimal Investments, Minimal Results: The Failure of Security Policy in Afghanistan’, Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit, [Kabul] June 2004; James Dobbins et al., America's Role in Nation-Building: From Germany to Iraq, Santa Monica: RAND, 2003; Seth G. Jones, ‘Averting Failure in Afghanistan’, Survival, Vol.48, No.1, Spring 2006, pp.111–28.

6. Ahmed Rashid, ‘He's Welcome in Pakistan’, Washington Post, 26 Feb. 2006.

7. ‘Bush Praises Pakistan Terror Role’, BBC News, 4 March 2006.

8. Daniel Cooney, ‘Karzai Wants End to U.S.-Led Operations’, Associated Press Online (Kabul), 20 Sept. 2005.

9. Tim Golden, ‘Years After Two Afghans Died, Case Falters’, New York Times, 13 Feb. 2006.

10. The White House, Press Release: Joint Declaration of the United States–Afghanistan Strategic Partnership, 23 May 2005, www.state.gov/p/sa/rls/pr/2005/46628.htm.

11. During his October 2005 trip to Kabul, NATO Secretary-General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, announced that NATO would increase its force in Afghanistan to as many as 15,000 soldiers and would take on counter-insurgency operations as it expands its mission into southern Afghanistan in the coming months. See Carlotta Gall, ‘NATO to Expand Force and Task In Afghanistan’, New York Times, 7 Oct. 2005.

12. Eric Schmitt and David S. Cloud, ‘United States May Start Pulling Out of Afghanistan Next Spring’, New York Times, 14 Sept. 2005; James Travers, ‘Smart Move to Sidestep Afghanistan Prison Controversy’, The Hamilton Spectator (Ontario) 4 Mar. 2006.

13. Islamic Government of Afghanistan, ‘Terms of Reference for the Combined Force Command and ISAF PRTs in Afghanistan’, 27 Jan. 2005.

14. Ali A. Jalali, ‘The Future of Afghanistan’, Parameters, Spring 2006, p.6.

15. World Bank, Afghanistan: Managing Public Finances for Development, Main Report, vol. 1, Washington, DC: World Bank, 27 Nov. 2005, p.24.

16. Ashraf Ghani, Clare Lockhart, Baqer Massoud, and Nargis Nehan, ‘Public Finance in Afghanistan: The Budget as the Instrument of State-Building and Policymaking’, in James Boyce (ed.), Peace and the Public Purse: Building State Capacity after Violent Conflict, New York: Center on International Cooperation, forthcoming.

17. Along with Somalia, Afghanistan is one of two countries in the world unable to produce accurate enough data to be ranked in UN Development Programme's (UNDP) annual Human Development Report. Using available data, however, Afghanistan's National Human Development Report 2004 estimated that Afghanistan would have ranked 173 out of 178, barely ahead of the African states of Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sierra Leone, and Niger. UNDP, Afghanistan: National Human Development Report 2004, accessed at http://hdr.undp.org/docs/reports/national/AFG_Afghanistan/afghanistan_2004_en.pdf.

18. For population statistics on Afghanistan, see: Afghanistan's Millennium Development Goal report: http://www.ands.gov.af/src/src/MDGs_Reps/MDGR%202005.pdf.

19. UN Office on Drugs and Crime and Government of Afghanistan Counter Narcotics Directorate, Afghanistan: Opium Survey 2005, p.9, http://www.unodc.org/pdf/afg/afg_survey_2005_exsum.pdf.

20. Farah Stockman, ‘Afghan Women Pay the Price for War on Drugs’, Boston Globe [Boston], 29 Sept. 2005.

21. President George W. Bush, ‘Remarks on war effort delivered to the George C. Marshall ROTC Award Seminar on National Security at Cameron Hall’, Virginia Military Institute, Lexington, Virginia, 17 April 2002, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/04/20020417-1.html.

22. A pledge is a promise of an amount; a commitment is a signed contract for a specific use of funds. Commitments lead to disbursements, which are deposited into the accounts of trust funds or implementing agencies. Disbursed funds are turned into expenditures as projects are implemented, which can take years in some cases. Donors report on disbursement, which constitutes expenditure by the donor government, but not on final expenditure on development, which is of greatest interest to the aid recipient.

23. See Carlotta Gall and Somini Sengupta, ‘Afghan Electorate's Message: The Provinces Need Public Works and Restoration of Order’, New York Times [New York], 20 Sept. 2005.

24. Data from the Ministry of Finance for aid through the end of calendar year 2005 show that the United States had disbursed 36 per cent of commitments for that year, compared to 58 per cent for other donors.

25. The World Bank-administered Afghanistan Reconstruction Trust Fund supports the government's recurrent and development expenditures. Trust funds managed by the UNDP provide support for SSR and counter-narcotics.