East European Cities — Patterns of Growth and Decline, 1960–2005

Abstract

The paper examines the long-term population trajectories of East European cities and analyses how their fortunes have changed, both in relation to their past growth profiles and to other settlements. The main finding is that the absolute and relative positions of cities have declined sharply since the 1960s and 1970s. During the last decade the population of three-quarters of cities has been contracting, and slightly faster on average than the overall population. The immediate explanation for the downturn appears to be general demographic decline, including a fall in the fertility rate and international out-migration, rather than specific urban factors. Some places have fared less badly than others, including many of the capital cities and the principal centres of rural regions.

Notes

According to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS, 2005) 18,900 people emigrated from Poland in 2004. During the same year about 100,000 Poles registered for work in the UK alone (Home Office, 2006). The latter figure excludes self-employed migrants (e.g. construction workers) and dependants.

The gainers and retainers include: Staryi Oskol (iron and steel), Nizhnekamsk (petrochemicals, power), Togliatti (automotive), Shakhty (coal), Sterlitamak (petrochemicals), Cheboksary (automotive), Lipetsk (iron and steel), Orenburg (engineering), Syktyvkar (shipbuilding, paper-pulp), Greater Volgograd (metals, petrochemicals, power), Lublin (automotive, machinery), Kraków (iron and steel, oil refining, chemicals), Gdynia (shipbuilding, port), Mahilëu (chemicals, electric engineering), Naberezhnye Chelny (automotive), Balakovo (chemicals, power), Mykolaiv (shipbuilding, port), Ul'ianovsk (automotive), Cherepovets (iron and steel), Izhevsk (metals and automotive), Rostov-on-Don (engineering), Craiova (engineering and machinery), Kryvyi Rih (iron and steel), Kremenchuk (automotive), Mariupol' (iron and steel, port), L'viv (automotive, machinery, electric engineering) and Plovdiv (metals, machine-building, textiles).

These include: Belgorod, Hrodna, Białystok, Brest, Rivne, Khmel'nyts'kyi, Kaluga, Astrakhan', Yoshkar-Ola, Ternopil', Toruń, Bila Tserkva, Vologda, R'iazan', Kirov, Chernihiv, Ivano-Frankivs'k, Luts'k, Kostroma, Orel, Babruisk, Cherkasy, Penza, Pskov, Poltava, Sumy, Vinnytsia, Chernivtsi and Zhytomyr.

The most prominent include: Murmansk (mining, port), Rostock (shipbuilding, port), Severodvinsk (shipbuilding, naval base), Riga (engineering, shipbuilding, port), Tallinn (engineering, shipbuilding, port), Horlivka (coal, chemicals, engineering), Braşov (machine-building, metal-processing), Dniprodzerzhyns'k (iron and steel), the Upper Silesian conurbation (coal, iron and steel), Ivanovo (textiles), Kherson (shipbuilding, oil refinery, port), Dnipropetrovs'k (iron and steel, engineering, chemicals), Greater Donets'k (coal, iron and steel, heavy engineering), Galaţi (iron and steel), Zaporizhzhia (power, iron and steel, engineering, automotive), Dzerzhinsk (chemicals), Luhans'k (heavy engineering), Łódż (textiles), Archangel (port), Odesa (port), Nizhniy Novgorod (automotive, shipbuilding, electric engineering, machinery), Samara (petrochemicals, engineering, power), Ostrava (coal, iron and steel), Perm' (oil refining, engineering), Ufa (petrochemical, engineering), Gdańsk (shipbuilding, port), Košice (iron and steel) and Szczecin (shipbuilding, port).

The figures are not reproduced in the paper because of space constraints.