Migration, Changes of City-Region Structure and Implications for Planning Practices and Regional Development Policies in the Yangtze River Delta Area in China

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta Area (YRDA), especially Metropolitan Shanghai, is undoubtedly the leading economic region in China, and it has become one of the most important population convergence areas. It is also widely considered as the sixth largest urban agglomeration in the world. Concluding that migration is the most important aspect of population dynamics in YRDA, the author studies two important forms of internal migration: migration into or out of YRDA, and migration among different cities within YRDA. The paper explores how both forms of migration jointly influence the population distribution among cities and determine the changes of the city-region structure. Furthermore, the paper makes a demographic projection of the future evolution of the area based on estimates of urban-specific fertility, mortality, and net migration. The author suggests that it is necessary to adopt migration-led development strategy and polices in YRDA, in the context of the national population redistribution and achieving a balanced urban–rural development. The author also suggests that it should strike a good balance between migration and regional sustainability. Furthermore, the author suggests that differential development strategies should be advocated for different cities within YRDA, and it is necessary to strengthen regional coordination system for achieving an integrated regional development strategy in the area.

Acknowledgements

An earlier version of this paper was presented in the seminar at the International Centre for East Asian Development (ICSEAD), Kitakyushu, Japan, held on 22 August 2006. I am grateful for all comments and suggestions at the seminar. The Chinese National Education Research Fund also supported the research underpinning this paper.

Notes

Actually the YRDECA is also extendable. Taizhou City in Zhe'jiang applied to join in the association in 2003 and was approved; there are 16 memberships for the regional economic collaboration association heretofore.

Refer to Tan (2003).

Those are Shanghai, Chongqing, Jiangsu Province, Zhe'jiang Province, Anhui Province, Jianxi Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province and Sichuan Province.

Due to the existent household registration system in China, household population has big difference with permanent population. Permanent population is defined as people reside in one place more than half a year. Household population migration is caused by policy migration and is measured by place of household registration, while permanent population migration is measured by resident place and economic activities. It is widely recommended to use this permanent population and its measured migration process in China regional studies. Refer to Ren and Wang (2003).

While Ningbo, Hangzhou, Nanjing, and Changzhou have comparatively higher out-migration rate than other cities, it might show a phenomenon that there are a large number of entrepreneurs and highly knowledgeable technicians seeking further business opportunities and development opportunities outside YRDA in the context of our analysis that Guangdong and Beijing are some of the main migration directions from YRDA.

Zhoushan has a comparatively high immigration rate within YRDA, and its out-migration rate to other YRDA cities is even higher.

Zhu's analysis did not include Taizhou area within YRDA. The population of YRDA will be 105 million including Taizhou if we take the same methodology for population projection.