Comparing political futures: the rise and use of scenarios in future-oriented area studies

Abstract

The predictive ability of scholars of politics has long been a subject of theoretical debate and methodological development. In theoretical debate, prediction represents a central issue regarding the extent to which the study of politics is scientific. In methodological development, much effort and resource have been devoted to a diverse range of predictive approaches, with varying degrees of success. Expectations that scholars forecast accurately come as much from the policy and media worlds as from the academy. Since the end of the Cold War, scenario development has become prevalent in future-oriented research by area studies scholars. This approach is long due critical re-assessment. For all its strengths as a policy tool, scenario development tends towards a bounded methodology, driving the process of anticipating futures along predetermined paths into a standardised range of options, and paying insufficient attention to theoretical and contextual understandings available within the relevant scholarly disciplines.

Keywords:

• area studies
• forecasts
• scenarios
• methods
• policy

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Edwin Bacon

Edwin Bacon is Reader in Comparative Politics at Birkbeck, University of London. He is the author of five books on Russian politics and history, including Contemporary Russia (2010) and Securitising Russia: The Domestic Politics of Putin (2006), as well as many articles. He has worked closely with the policy and consulting worlds for two decades, including serving as Parliamentary Special Adviser to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee of the House of Commons.