Regional elections in Italy (2012–15): Low turnout, tri-polar competition and Democratic Party’s (multi-level) dominance

ABSTRACT

Between October 2012 and May 2015, all Italian regions went to the polls to renew their assemblies and executives. In contrast to previous election rounds, only seven out of fifteen ordinary regions held their elections in (horizontal) simultaneity. For the first time, some ordinary regions held their elections in (vertical) simultaneity with the national or European election. The election results were somehow exceptional in three ways. First, they were affected by an extremely low level of turnout vis-à-vis previous regional elections and, in line with the second-order election model, vis-a-vis the 2013 general election. Turnout was, however, comparatively higher in the special status regions governed by dominant ethno-regionalist parties (Aosta Valley and South Tyrol); and in the regions that voted in vertical simultaneity with the national and (to a lesser extent) European elections. Secondly, in contrast to previous regional elections, competition for regional executives was (at least) tri-polar, following the pattern that emerged in the 2013 general election. Thirdly, in contrast to the predictions of the second-order election model, this round of regional elections did not punish the national incumbent. Indeed, the Democratic Party won fifteen out of twenty-one regional presidencies, taking nine of them from the centre-right. Finally, it is worth stressing that the combination of low turnout and tri-polar competition, in conjunction with presidential executives and majoritarian voting systems, raises serious issues of democratic legitimacy, as most regional presidents are voted in office by between a fifth and a quarter of registered voters.

KEYWORDS:

• Italy
• regional elections
• second-order elections
• territorial politics
• democratic legitimacy

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 Until 1971 there were 20 regions, with Trento and Bolzano-Bozen provinces being part of the region Trentino-Alto Adige. The constitutional reform adopted in that year (Constitutional Law 1/1971) transferred most of the region’s powers to the two provinces, eventually leaving the region as a virtual ‘empty shell’. In this article, the region Trentino-Alto Adige is not considered, while the two provinces are called Trento province and South Tyrol. The autonomous provinces represent two of the six special status regions (RSSs).

2 For details on the 2012 Sicilian elections, see Emanuele (2013). For details on the 2013 elections in Lazio, Lombardy and FVG (as well as some coverage of election results in Basilicata, Trento province and South Tyrol), see Massetti and Sandri (2014). For details on the 2013 elections in South Tyrol, see Pallaver and Scantamburlo (2014). For details on the 2014 elections in Emilia Romagna, see Maggini (2015). For details on the 2014 Calabrian elections, see Emanuele and Marino (2016). For details on the simultaneous 2015 regional elections (Apulia, Campania, Liguria, Marche, Tuscany, Umbria and Veneto), see Bolgherini and Grimaldi (2016). For an analysis of the latest round of RSO elections (2013–15), see Tronconi (2015) and Bolgherini and Grimaldi (2017a).