https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8669-5795
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ABSTRACT
The literature on second-order elections, coattail effects and multi-level party systems argues that national dynamics tend to shape voters’ choices in subnational elections. However, despite Brazil’s 2018 general elections having caught the electorate’s (and world’s) attention due to the rise of a radical-right populist to the presidency, they presented the highest level of incongruence between national and subnational party systems in the country’s history. This article presents a general overview of these elections and explores the reasons behind the detachment of subnational races from the presidential election. We argue that the incentives for ‘provincialization’ were much stronger than those for the ‘presidentialization’ of party strategies in 2018, first, because of the unprecedented high level of uncertainty regarding the presidential race and, second, because the presidential winning party was unable to develop a vertically presidentialized strategy. The findings contribute to the debates both on multi-level electoral coordination and on party organizations.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.
| Political parties and acronyms | ||
| DEM | = | Democrats |
| PC do B | = | Communist Party of Brazil |
| PDT | = | Democratic Labour Party |
| MDB | = | Brazilian Democratic Movement |
| PP | = | Progressive Party |
| PPS | = | Popular Socialist Party |
| PR | = | Party of the Republic |
| PSB | = | Brazilian Socialist Party |
| PSC | = | Social Christian Party |
| PSD | = | Social Democratic Party |
| PSDB | = | Brazilian Social Democracy |
| PT | = | Workers’ Party |
| PTB | = | Brazilian Labour Party |
| PSL | = | Social Liberal Party |
| PV | = | Green Party |
| PRTB | = | Brazilian Labour Renewal Party |
| Novo | = | New Party |
| REDE | = | Sustainability Network |
| PHS | = | Humanist Party of Solidarity |
Notes
1 A list of party acronyms can be found at the end of the text.
2 The self-rule dimension refers to the authority (autonomy) that a regional government has within its territorial jurisdiction, whereas the shared rule dimension relates to the powers and influence that the subnational government exercises in the country’s national (federal) administration. See Niedzwiecki et al. (Citation2019).
3 https://brasil.elpais.com/brasil/2018/08/01/politica/1533147678_912904.html; https://noticias.uol.com.br/politica/eleicoes/2018/noticias/2018/08/06/psb-diz-que-lacerda-tumultua-ao-manter-candidatura-em-minas-gerais.htm.
4 In practice, large parties use electoral coalitions in national and subnational legislative elections to reward small parties for their support in the executive races for the presidency and the governorships (Limongi and Vasselai Citation2018).
5 Brazil’s GDP shrank by 3.5% in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016 and grew by 1.1% in 2017 and 2018. At the time of the elections, the unemployment rate was almost 12%.
10 As early as February 2014, president Rousseff had the support of 22% of voters, whereas no other candidate obtained more than 10% of voting intentions. She remained ahead of the polls during the entire campaign and was elected in the runoff election. (http://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2014/presidente/indice-1.shtml).
11 Source of financial and organizational data: TSE (www.tse.jus.br).
13 http://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2018/10/1982865-bolsonaro-cresce-e-atinge-32.shtml; http://datafolha.folha.uol.com.br/eleicoes/2018/09/1981347-presidencia-bolsonaro-lidera-e-quatro-empatam-em-disputa-por-2-lugar.shtml.
14 The above mentioned operationalization assigns higher scores to state elections characterized by incongruent coalitions, because once we assign a value of zero to gubernatorial votes, the difference between coalition votes in national and subnational elections achieves its maximum.
15 https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/07/sob-pressao-psb-adia-decisao-e-deve-definir-no-voto-apoio-ao-planalto.shtml; https://www1.folha.uol.com.br/poder/2018/08/com-neutralidade-psb-pedira-a-candidatos-que-apoiem-nomes-da-esquerda.shtml.
16 The conservative PP supported PT gubernatorial candidates in the states of Bahia, Piauí and Ceará, and it joined the re-election campaign of Flávio Dino (member of the communist PC do B) in Maranhão. These are all Northeastern states.
17 The PSB candidate invited the former Minister of Environment Marina Silva, who had competed in the 2010 presidential election and obtained almost 20% of the vote, to be his vice-president. Similarly to Campos, Silva had distanced herself from the PT, after participating of Lula’s cabinet. When Campos died unexpectedly during the campaign, she replaced him in the top of the ticket.
18 PT’s presidential coalitions had ten parties in the 2010 elections, nine parties in 2014, and only three parties in 2018.