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ABSTRACT
Somalia adopted federalism in 2004 and embarked on its implementation in 2012. This paper provides critical insights on the reception and performance of Somalia’s federal project since 2012. The analysis has shown major practical challenges facing Somalia’s federal structure: constitutional ambiguity and lack of consensus on federalism, difficulties regarding the formation of the federal member states and their border demarcations, the status of Mogadishu and questions concerning fiscal federalism. The paper argues these challenges as well as the general public’s inadequate knowledge of federalism are pushing the nation towards decentralisation. It contends the regional politics and shifting alliances in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East are affecting Somalia's federal future, thus enforcing the ‘federalism is a foreign initiative’ notion. The paper suggests that a close study of Somali perceptions reveals that federalism is an externally imposed idea, which renders the weakening of the Somali state a strategic state policy.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).
Notes
1 Somali clans are based on common ancestry according to a continuous paternal line. Tribe is a group of society larger than clan but smaller than a state. Both are destabilizing and stabilizing factors in Somalia. In this article, both terms are used inter-changeably.
2 The European colonial powers divided Somalia into five political territories. These were Italian Somalia, British Somaliland, French Somaliland (now Djibouti), Ethiopian Ogaden (or Hawd) and northwestern Kenya.
3 The Maay and Maxaa-tiri are the largest two dialects of the Somali language. Maxaa-tiri is spoken by the majority of Somalis, while Maay is spoken mostly by the Digil and Mirifle clan family, which mainly inhabit the current FMS of Southwest state. Both dialects are the official language of Somalia per the 2012 Provisional Constitution.
4 Article 86 (Administrative Decentralization): ‘Whenever possible, administrative functions shall be decentralized and performed by the local organs of the State and by public bodies.’
5 See Chapter 5 of the 2012 constitution: ‘Devolution of the Powers of State in the Federal Republic of Somalia.’
6 See Articles 51 and 4 of the 2012 provisional federal constitution.
7 Well before the introduction of federalism in Somalia, the secessionist Somaliland state in the northwest and the autonomous Puntland state in the northeast established local governance structures that enabled them to expand trade out of their seaports, generate revenues and create business-friendly environments in their respective regions.
8 Interview with Somali political analyst in Mogadishu on March 25, 2019.
9 Interviews and focus group discussions (December 2018-March 2020 in Puntland, Hirshabelle, Galmudug, Southwest, Jubbaland and Mogadishu), observations and historical data.
10 For instance, a considerable number of the Somali observers believe that Ethiopia has had a leading role in persuading the Mbgathi peace conference participants to embrace federalism. Observations on social media platforms used by Somalis, as well as popular Somali TV and radio shows, confirm this argument. An example from the non-Somali perspectives is Ken Menkhaus, who argued that ‘the introduction of federalism as a system of government in Somalia can be traced to the rise of Puntland and Ethiopia’s preference for a federal Somalia.’ See Menkhaus (Citation2018).
11 For more on Ethiopia’s ‘building blocks’ proposal, see University of Pennsylvania (Citation1999).
12 Somalis belong to one of 4 major clans (Darod, Dir, Hawiye and Rahanweyn), with each constituting a majority of its respective FMS. Dir and its cousin, Isaq, dominate Somaliland. Darod leads Puntland in the northeast and Jubaland. The Rahanweyn, which traditionally resides in the inter-riverine area between the Juba and Shabelle rivers in Southern Somalia, make up the majority of the Southwest state. Hawiye fires the shots in Galmudug and Hirshabelle, together with Banadir region, which hosts Mogadishu—the country's largest city and its capital.
13 Focus discussion with a group of senior university lecturers, civil servants, social activists and youth and women representatives in Dhusamareb, Galmudug, Somalia on February 08, 2019.
14 Interview with university professor in Mogadishu on August 26, 2019.
15 The ‘ill-defined federal agenda’ refers to the current Provisional Constitution, which has a number of unresolved constitutional issues such as the future status of Mogadishu and the sharing of powers and resources between the FGS and the FMS.
16 Interview with Somalia analyst in Mogadishu on December 15, 2018.
17 Interview with a think tanker and civil society activist in Mogadishu on December 15, 2018.
18 Focus group discussion with academics, civil servants, social activists and youth and women representatives in Dhusamareb on February 08, 2019.
19 Interview with a civil society representative and an academic in Djibouti on December 16, 2019.
20 Focus group discussion, December 17, 2018, Djibouti.
21 Telephone interview with academic, November 07, 2019.
22 Focus group discussion with academics and analysts from Somaliland, August 24, 2019, Mogadishu.
23 Interview with Somali MP, Djibouti, December 16, 2018.
24 The ‘Dual-Track’ was a U.S. approach to engage with Somalia. On the first track, the US would support the TFG, and in the second track, Washington engaged with Somaliland, Puntland and other regional or clan actors that existed in the country: https://intpolicydigest.org/2019/01/15/is-nicholas-haysom-a-victim-of-u-s-dual-track-policy-on-somalia/
25 For example, the UK, Germany, Italy, Canada, Norway and Denmark as well as other world powers such as Russia, China and India.
26 Focus group discussion with social activists, academics, women representatives and state government staffers in Dhusamareb on December 5, 2018.
27 Interview with a Somali academic in Istanbul on November 08, 2019. Similarly, the famous Somali cartoonist Amin Amir once depicted the transitory aspect of the Somalia constitution, terming the document as full of ‘confusion’. https://mahadgelle.com/blog/2020/09/21/dastuurka-soomaaliya/
28 Focus group discussion with academics, politicians and civil society members in Baidoba on April 23, 2019.
29 Interview with Somali analyst in Mogadishu on February 26, 2019.
31 Focus group discussion with Mogadishu residents (academics, traditional elders, and youth and women representatives) May 04-August 29, 2019.
32 Interview with an official at the FGS, Mogadishu August 19, 2019.
33 Interview with a former federal minister at Dhusamareb on December 5, 2018.
34 Focus group discussion in Dhusamareb on December 2, 2018.
35 Focus group discussion in Kismayo on February 8, 2019.
36 Interview with former Somali Foreign Minister, Istanbul, December 2019.
37 Telephone interview with a Somali traditional elder on January 05, 2020.
38 Telephone interview with a civil society member on January 07, 2020.
39 Telephone interview with a senior Villa Somalia officer, January, 20, 2020.
40 For more discussion on Somalia in the context of the Qatar crisis, see Dahir (Citation2021).
41 Telephone interview with a Somali academic, August 18, 2019.
42 Interview with a Somali Senator, August 27, 2019, Mogadishu.
43 Telephone interview with a Somali politician, November 4, 2019.
44 Interview with former FMS leader, November 14, 2019, Istanbul.