Orwellian risks in European conflict prevention discourse

Abstract

Conflict prevention has been the nomenclature of a non-military type of security policy, but that is changing. During the Cold War, the OSCE was a forum for conflict prevention at an interstate level. After the Cold War, OSCE conflict prevention turned to domestic affairs, comparable to NGO activities. This practice tends to be overshadowed by the EU. The EU has turned conflict prevention into an aspect of the ESDP. This practice competes with the way in which NATO includes conflict prevention. By developing conflict prevention beyond the context of the UN Security Council, and by adding a military dimension to it, conflict prevention can easily become an offensive intervention policy serving self-interested power politics, or mixed motives at the least. Moreover, non-military forms of conflict prevention politics are problematic too. They run the risk of burning in a hell of good intentions. Thus, the development of the conflict prevention discourse should be followed with scepticism.

Notes

¹ Most sources mention 55–57 million deaths for the Second World War (about 19 million military and 36–38 million civilian deaths); estimates for the First World War show more variation, especially in calculating the civilian death toll: 8.5–9.4 million military casualties and 5–13 million civilian deaths. I follow Matthew White's figures of 15 million overall for the First World War and, 55 million overall for the Second World War:<http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/20centry.htm>

² Estimates of Cold War casualties cannot be found in libraries or on the web (but, à la Blix, it is easier to be sure if you finally find what you look for than if you still have not found it). Data about the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Soviet-Afghan war etc. are there, but so far major sites about war statistics have not categorised them under one heading: the Cold War – a myth in the making?

³ John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, (New York: W.W. Norton, 2001), p. 3. See also: Jaap H. De Wilde, “De mondialisering van de Monroe Doctrine” [“The Globalisation of the Monroe Doctrine”], Internationale Spectator, Vol. 57, No. 7/8, 2003, pp. 346–352.

⁴ Ole Wæver, “Europe, State and Nation in the New Middle Ages” in: Jaap H. De Wilde & Håkan Wiberg (eds.), Organized Anarchy in Europe. The Role of States and Intergovernmental Organizations, (London: I.B. Tauris, 1996), pp. 107–128.

⁵ Edwin Bakker & Bert Bomert, De OVSE en het Nederlands Voorzitterschap in 2003, (Den Haag: NHC/CICAM, 2002); Robert L. Barry, The OSCE: A Forgotten Transatlantic Security Organization?, BASIC, Research Report 2002.3.

⁶ Walter A. Kemp (ed.), Quiet Diplomacy in Action: The OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities, (The Hague/London/Boston: Kluwer Law International, 2001).

⁷ Based on Bakker & Bomert, op. cit., p. 24.

⁸ See <www.osce.org>

⁹ Tor Tanke Holm & Espen Barth Eide (eds.), Peacebuilding and Police Reform, (London: Frank Cass, 2000).

¹⁰ See <www.conflict-prevention.net>

¹¹ European Council of Gothenburg, “Conclusions of the Presidency”, EU Press Release, 15/06/2001, No. 200/1/01. EU Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts, <www.eu2001.se/static/eng/pdf/violen.PDF>. The programme was first adopted at the General Affairs Council (June 2001), which reflected on a Communication on Conflict Prevention issued by the EU Commission's Conflict Prevention and Crisis Management Unit (DG External Relations), <http://europa.eu.int/comm/external_relations/cfsp/news/com2001_211_en.pdf>.

¹² See for examples of this new outlet: European Centre for Conflict Prevention, et al., People Building Peace: 35 Inspiring Stories from Around the World, (European Centre for Conflict Prevention, 1999); Paul van Tongeren & Anneke Galama (eds.), Towards Better Peacebuilding Practice: On Lessons Learned, Evaluation Practices and Aid & Conflict, (European Centre for Conflict Prevention, 2002).

¹³ See: Gothenburg European Council, 15–16 June 2001; Lord Robertson, “Peacekeeping and Conflict Prevention: What Risks and Threats in Geopolitics in the Future?”, NATO On-Line Library, 13 January 2000.

¹⁴ Catherina Phuong, “Enlarging ‘Fortress Europe’: EU Accession, Asylum, and Immigration in Candidate Countries”, International and Comparative Law Quarterly, Vol. 52, No. 3, 2003, pp. 641–664. Jaap H. De Wilde, “Fears into Fences: The Isolationist Pitfalls of European Federalism”, in Stefano Guzzini & Ditrich Jung (eds.), Contemporary Security Analysis and Copenhagen Peace Research, (London: Routledge, 2004), pp. 180–192. On ENP:<http://europa.eu.int/comm/world/enp/index_en.htm>.

¹⁵ Ole Wæver, “Identity, Integration and Security: Solving the Sovereignty Puzzle in EU Studies”, Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 48, No. 2, 1995, pp. 389–431.

¹⁶ Annex III European Council Declaration on Strengthening the Common ESDP, art 1., <http://europa.eu.int/council/off/conclu/june1999/annexe_en.htm#a3>

¹⁷ Jan Karlas, “The ESDP-building Process and Conflict Prevention: Intergovernmental Policy-Making and Institutional Expertise”, Journal of International Relations and Development, Vol. 8, No. 2, 2005, pp. 164–191, p. 170.

¹⁸ Michael Lund, Preventing Violent Conflicts: A Strategy for Preventive Diplomacy, (Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1996), pp. 37–44.

¹⁹ Council of the European Union, “Implementation of the European Union Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts”, Brussels, 9991/02, 18 June 2002.

²⁰ Council Regulation (EC), No. 381/2001, 26 February 2001.

²¹ Ibid.

²² Council of the European Union, “Implementation of the European Union Programme for the Prevention of Violent Conflicts”, Brussels, 9991/02, 18 June 2002.

²³ UN-SC Press Release SC/7131.

²⁴ Ibid.

²⁵ ICISS, The Responsibility to Protect: Report of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty, (Ottawa: International Development Research Centre for ICISS, 2001); <www.iciss.gc.ca>; Ramesh Thakur, “Intervention, Sovereignty and the Responsibility to Protect: Experiences from ICISS”, Security Dialogue, Vol. 33, No. 3, 2002, pp. 323–340.

²⁶ UN-SC Press Release SC/7131.

²⁷ NATO Logistics Handbook, Chapter 5, par. 504. See also: Strategic Concept of 1991: Part III.5 “Management of Crisis and Conflict Prevention”. UN Resolution 1366 likewise refers to ‘preventive employment’ without explaining what is meant.

²⁸ For an excellent recent update of Just War Theory see: Mark Evans (ed.), Just War Theory: A Reappraisal, (Edindurgh: Edinburgh University Press, 2005).

²⁹ Charles W. Kegley & Gregory A. Raymond, “Preventive War and Permissive Normative Order”, International Studies Perspectives, Vol. 4, No. 4, 2003, pp. 385–394: p. 388.

³⁰ Neta C. Crawford, “The Justice of Preemption and Preventive War Doctrines”, in Evans, op. cit., pp. 25–49; p. 41.

³¹ Obviously, ESDP is no match for NATO's operational capabilities. But, following the step by step development of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the ESDP has set the stage for piecemeal creation of EU ‘hard power’.

³² In academic literature, conflict prevention is poorly defined too. Most publications consist of case studies in which a near-conflict escalates or is successfully averted.

³³ <www.conflict-prevention-associates.org>.

³⁴ Barry Buzan, Ole Wæver & Jaap De Wilde, Security: A New Framework for Analysis, (Boulder, Col.: Lynne Rienner, 1998).

³⁵ See: Albert J. Jongman (ed.), Contemporary Genocides: Causes, Cases, Consequences, (Leiden, PIOOM, 1996).

³⁶ UN Resolution 260 A (III), General Assembly, 9 December 1948; emphasis added.

³⁷ Thakur, op.cit., p. 324.

³⁸ George W. Bush, West Point Speech, <www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/06>

³⁹ George W. Bush, Cincinnati Speech, <www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/10>

⁴⁰ Alice Ackermann, “The Idea and Practice of Conflict Prevention”, Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 40, No. 3, 2003, pp. 339–347. Alex J. Bellamy, Paul Williams & Stuart Griffin, Understanding Peacekeeping, (Cambridge: Polity Press, 2004), pp. 253–255.

⁴¹ Bellamy, et al., op. cit., p. 255.

⁴² Ibid.

⁴³ Berto Jongman, World Conflict and Human Rights Map 2001/2002, (PIOOM in cooperation with the European Centre for Conflict Prevention and the Forum on Early Warning and Early Response, 2002).

⁴⁴ The film is based on Philip K. Dick's short story “Minority Report”, Fantastic Universe, January 1956.