Foreign Policy Analysis and the Making of Plan Colombia

Abstract

This article, through a Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) perspective, analyses the only long-term foreign policy decision ever made in Colombia. Since FPA portrays a theory of human political choice to analyse foreign policy behaviour, this analysis will specifically focus on Plan Colombia’s decision-makers as a case study using empirical examples. The purpose is to understand the specificity of this foreign policy decision-making process from an unexplored perspective, namely Groupthink theory. Although Janis has asserted that the process would negatively affect decision-making quality, this article contradicts this assumption based on both the boundaries and opportunities encountered when applying mainstream FPA to a non-US case study. As such, a major challenge remains when it comes to judging quality and, correspondingly, expecting certain outcomes. This article demonstrates that group cohesiveness and concurrence-seeking tendencies may be useful for explaining successful foreign policy decision outcomes.

Disclosure Statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

About the Authors

María Catalina Monroy is Research Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Sergio Arboleda University, Bogotá, Colombia. She holds a PhD in Political Studies from Universidad Externado de Colombia. She is also Principal Co-Investigator of the WomanStats Project, Provo, Utah, United States. Her main areas of interest are Latin American foreign policy analysis, including foreign policy and gender and urban security and gender.

Fabio Sánchez is Research Professor at Sergio Arboleda University, Bogotá, Colombia. His research interests are Colombian foreign policy, multilateralism and regional integration in South America. He is currently interested in analysing the role of the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR) in the preferences of the foreign policy elites. He holds an MA and PhD in International Relations from the Autonomous University of Barcelona.

Notes

1. Klaus Brummer, “Implications for Mainstream FPA Theory”, in Klaus Brummer and Valerie Hudson (eds.), Foreign Policy Analysis beyond North America (Boulder, CO/London: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2015), pp. 169–186.

2. See Catalina Monroy, Tomadores Humanos de Decisión. Plan Colombia: Una Estratégica Política Exterior de Estados Unidos (Bogotá: Universidad Sergio Arboleda, 2014).

3. Irving L. Janis, “Groupthink and Group Dynamics: A Social Psychological Analysis of Defective Policy Decisions”, Policy Studies Journal, Vol. 2 (1973), pp. 19–25; Irving L. Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies of Policy Decisions and Fiascoes (Boston, MA: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1982).

4. See Mark Schafer and Scott Crichlow, Groupthink versus High-Quality Decision Making in International Relations (New York: Columbia University Press, 2010), p. 248.

5. Eduardo Pizarro and Ana María Bejarano, “Colombia: A Failed State?”, Harvard Review of Latin America, Vol. 2, No. 3 (2003), pp. 1–6.

6. In October (2015), President Santos and Secretary of State John Kerry agreed to relaunch a new version of the 15-year-old Plan Colombia, adapted to the current internal political objectives of the Colombian government, focused on post conflict.

7. Valerie Hudson, “Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor-Specific Theory and the Ground of International Relations”, Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 1, No. 1 (2005), pp. 1–30.

8. See Margaret G. Hermann, “Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 24, No. 1 (1980), pp. 7–46; Margaret G. Hermann and Charles F. Hermann, “Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry”, International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 33, No. 4 (1989), pp. 361–387; Margaret G. Hermann and Thomas Preston, “Presidents, Advisers, and Foreign Policy: The Effect of Leadership Style on Executive Arrangements”, Political Psychology, Vol. 15, No. 1 (1994), pp. 75–96; Thomas Preston, “The Role of Leaders in Sequential Decision Making: Lyndon Johnson, Advisory Dynamics, and Vietnam”, in Charles F. Hermann (ed.), When Things Go Wrong: Foreign Policy Decision Making under Adverse Feedback (New York: Routledge, 2012), pp. 53–88.

9. Schafer and Crichlow, op. cit.

10. Ibid., p. 247.

11. Ibid.

12. Ibid., p. 256.

13. See Rita Giacalone, “Latin American Foreign Policy”, in Brummer and Hudson, op. cit., pp. 121–138.

14. Ibid.

15. Jairo Estrada Álvarez (ed.), Plan Colombia: ensayos críticos (Bogotá: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, 2001); Jairo Estrada Álvarez (ed.), El Plan Colombia y la intensificación de la guerra, aspectos globales y locales (Bogotá: Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Facultad de Derecho, Ciencias Políticas y Sociales, 2002); Francisco Leal Buitrago, “El Plan Colombia: orígenes, desarrollos y proyección regional”, Íconos, No. 10 (2001), pp. 80–86; Socorro Ramírez, Luis Alberto Restrepo and Diana Marcela Rojas, El Plan Colombia y la internacionalización del conflicto (Bogotá: Editorial Planeta, 2001); Arlene B. Tickner, “Tensiones y consecuencias indeseables de la política exterior estadounidense en Colombia”, Colombia Internacional, No. 49–50 (2000), pp. 39–61; Ingrid Vaicius, “Una perspectiva hacia el entendimiento del Plan Colombia”, in Estrada Álvarez, Plan Colombia: ensayos críticos , op. cit., pp. 21–30; Alejo Vargas, “El Plan Colombia y la Iniciativa Regional Andina: equivocada respuesta al problema insurgente y poca eficacia en la lucha contra el narcotráfico”, in Estrada Álvarez, Plan Colombia: ensayos críticos, op. cit., pp. 349–379; Arlene B. Tickner, “Desafíos de seguridad en Colombia: internacionalización del conflicto armado y la relación ‘especial’ con Estados Unidos”, in Grace Jaramillo (ed.), Relaciones Internacionales: los Nuevos Horizontes (Quito: FLACSO-Ecuador, 2009), pp. 57–74.

16. Arlene B. Tickner, “La ‘guerra contra las drogas': las relaciones Colombia – Estados Unidos durante la administración Pastrana”, in Estrada Álvarez, Plan Colombia: ensayos críticos, op. cit., pp. 215–234; Ramírez, Restrepo and Rojas, op. cit.; Arlene B. Tickner, “Intervención por invitación, claves de la política exterior colombiana y de sus debilidades principales”, Colombia Internacional, No. 65 (2007), pp. 90–111; Juan G. Tokatlian, “El plan Colombia: ¿un modelo de intervención?”, Revista CIDOB d'afers internacionals (2001), pp. 203–219; Sandra Borda, “La internacionalización del conflicto armado después del 11 de septiembre: ¿la ejecución de una estrategia diplomática hábil o la simple ocurrencia de lo inevitable?”, Colombia Internacional, No. 65 (2007), pp. 66–89.

17. Elsa Nivia, “Las fumigaciones aéreas sobre cultivos ilícitos sí son peligrosas: algunas aproximaciones”, in Estrada Álvarez, Plan Colombia: ensayos críticos , op. cit., pp. 383–404; Mery García, “El Plan Colombia las fumigaciones aéreas son un atentado a la salud pública y ambiental de los colombianos”, in Estrada Álvarez, Plan Colombia: ensayos críticos, op. cit., pp. 405–420.

18. Estrada Álvarez, Plan Colombia: ensayos críticos, op. cit.; Estrada Álvarez, El Plan Colombia y la intensificación de la guerra, op. cit.; Adam Isacson, “Plan Colombia – Six Years Later: Report of a Center for International Policy (CIP) Staff Visit to Putumayo and Medellín, Colombia” (October 2006), available: <http://www.ciponline.org/research/entry/plan-colombia-six-years-later> (accessed 31 October 2015); Diana Marcela Rojas, “Plan Colombia II: More of the Same?”, Colombia Internacional (2007), pp. 14–37; Juan G. Tokatlian, “Colombia, el Plan Colombia y la región andina”, Nueva Sociedad, No. 173 (2001), p. 139.

19. Vaicius, op. cit.

20. Tickner, “Tensiones y consecuencias indeseables”, op. cit. In this work, Tickner conducted valuable interviews with members of the Colombian FPE, of Ernesto Samper’s government (1994–1998), including the above-mentioned president.

21. Tickner, “La ‘guerra contra las drogas’”, op. cit.

22. Ibid., p. 224.

23. Diego Cardona, “La política exterior de la administración Pastrana (1998–2002) hacia una evaluación preliminar”, Colombia Internacional, No. 53 (2001), pp. 53–74.

24. Ibid.

25. Tickner, “Desafíos de seguridad en Colombia”, op. cit.

26. Hudson, Foreign Policy Analysis, op. cit., p. 65

27. Hudson and Vore, op. cit.

28. Martha Ardila, “El Congreso y la política exterior colombiana: A propósito de la Comisión Segunda”, in Leonardo Carvajal and Javier Garay (eds.), La toma de las decisiones de la política exterior colombiana (Bogotá: Universidad Externado de Colombia, 2008), pp. 13–39; Fabio Sánchez and Santiago Mejía, “De Panamá a San Andrés: mutaciones de la política exterior colombiana”, Comentario Internacional, No. 14 (2014), pp. 31–51.

29. David Finkelstein, “On the Distinction between Conscious and Unconscious States of Mind”, American Philosophical Quarterly, Vol. 36, No. 2 (1999), pp. 79–100 (p. 80).

30. Irving L. Janis, “Groupthink: The Desperate Drive for Consensus at Any Cost”, Psychology Today (1971), pp. 183–191 (p. 184).

31. Ibid.

32. Janis, “Groupthink and Group Dynamics”, op. cit., p. 19.

33. Schafer and Crichlow, op. cit., p. 19.

34. Janis, “Groupthink: The Desperate Drive for Consensus”, op. cit., p. 183.

35. Ibid.

36. Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies, op. cit., p. 9.

37. Ibid., p. 247.

38. Janis, “Groupthink: The Desperate Drive for Consensus”, op. cit., p. 185.

39. Steve A. Yetiv, “Elements of Groupthink on the Road to War”, in Yetiv (ed.), Explaining Foreign Policy: US Decision-Making in the Gulf Wars, 2nd ed. (Baltimore, MD: The John Hopkins University Press, 2011), pp. 104–120; Schafer and Crichlow, op. cit.

40. Yetiv, “Elements of Groupthink”, op. cit., p. 104.

41. Ibid.

42. See David M.G. Lewis, “Friends with Benefits: The Evolved Psychology of Same- and Opposite-Sex Friendship”, Evolutionary Psychology, Vol. 9, No. 2 (2011), pp. 543–563 (p. 544); Thomas J. Berndt, “Friendship Quality and Social Development”, American Psychological Society (2002), pp. 7–10.

43. Janis, Groupthink: Psychological Studies, op. cit., p. 247.

44. See Philip E. Tetlock, Randall S. Peterson, Charles McGuire, Shi-jie Chang and Peter Feld, “Assessing Political Group Dynamics: A Test of the Groupthink Model”, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 63, No. 3, (1992), pp. 403–425.

45. Yetiv, op. cit., p. 106.

46. Ibid., p. 111.

47. Ibid., p. 107.

48. Ibid.

49. Ibid., p. 110.

50. Charles F. Hermann, “From Anticipated Victory to Sensing Entrapment in Vietnam: Group Efficacy in the LBJ Administration”, in Hermann, When Things Go Wrong, op. cit., pp. 36–52 (p. 37).

51. Ibid., p. 38.

52. Hermann, “From Anticipated Victory”, op. cit.

53. Ibid., p. 39; see Logevall (1999) cited in ibid., p. 43.

54. Ibid., p. 40.

55. Ibid., pp. 48–49.

56. Schafer and Crichlow, op. cit., p. 249.

57. Ibid., p. 31.

58. Ibid., p. 24.

59. Ibid., p. 50.

60. Ibid., p. 188.

61. Hermann and Preston, op. cit., p. 76.

62. Thomas Preston, The President and His Inner Circle: Leadership Style and the Advisory Process in Foreign Affairs (New York: Columbia University Press, 2001); Hermann and Preston, op. cit., p. 76.

63. Preston, op. cit., p. 13.

64. Schafer and Crichlow, op. cit., pp. 41–42

65. Yetiv, op. cit., p. 108.

66. Janis, “Groupthink and Group Dynamics”, op. cit., p. 21.

67. Schafer and Crichlow, op. cit., p. 59.

68. Ibid., p. 72.

69. Hermann and Preston, op. cit., p. 82.

70. Ibid., p. 82.

71. “Por siempre … amigos”, El Tiempo, 19 September 2003, available: <http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/MAM-1023788> (accessed 4 March 2016); “Un gabinete de confianza”, El Tiempo, 28 July 1999, available: <http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/MAM-800376> (accessed 4 March 2016).

72. Oscar Collazos, “Andrés Pastrana”, El Tiempo, 1 August 1999, available: <http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/MAM-922761> (accessed 10 March 2016).

73. See Joseph De Rivera, The Psychological Dimension of Foreign Policy (New York: Charles E. Merrill Publishing Company, 1968), p. 131.

74. Richard W. Cottam, Foreign Policy Motivation: A General Theory and a Case Study (Pennsylvania: University of Pittsburgh Press, 1977), p. 43.

75. See Torres Carol, “Procesos de paz en gobiernos anteriores”, Fundación Paz & Reconciliación (2015), available: <http://www.pares.com.co/home-noticias/procesos-de-paz-en-gobiernos-anteriores/> (accessed 4 March 2016).

76. Andrés Pastrana, “El Cambio es Ahora” (1998), available: <http://andrespastrana.org/portfolio-items/el-cambio-es-ahora/> (accessed 4 March 2016); Morton Halperin, Priscilla Clapp and Arnold Kanter, Bureaucratic Politics and Foreign Policy (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2006).

77. Néstor Humberto Martínez, “La historia inédita del Plan Colombia a sus 15 años”, El Tiempo, 4 February 2016, available: <http://www.eltiempo.com/politica/proceso-de-paz/historia-no-conocida-del-plan-colombia/16498820> (accessed 4 March 2016); “El Cambio es Ahora para la Paz”, El Tiempo, 16 August 1998, available: <http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/MAM-746954> (accessed 4 March 2016); “¿Resucita Andrés?”, Revista Semana, 18 December 1995, available: <http://www.semana.com/imprimir/27352> (accessed 4 March 2016).

78. Guillermo Fernández de Soto, “Logros de la política exterior de Colombia: 1998–2002”, Colombia Internacional, No. 53 (2001), pp. 75–93 (p. 76).

79. Ibid., p. 77.

80. Ibid., p. 79.

81. Andrés Pastrana, La palabra bajo fuego (Bogotá: Planeta, 2005).

82. “¡Todo un acuario de hijos políticos!”, Revista Semana, 26 October 2013, available: <http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/delfines-politica-colombia/362553-3> (accessed 24 March 2017).

83. “El Cambio es Ahora”, Revista Semana, 5 July 1999, available: <http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/el-cambio-es-ahora/39812-3> (accessed 24 March 2017).

84. Ibid.

85. Julio Sánchez Cristo, “Andrés Pastrana Arango”, in Cristo (ed.), El país que se hizo posible (Bogotá: Editorial Planeta, 2016), pp. 51–92 (p. 71).

86. Personal interview with Andrés Pastrana, Bogotá, 8 September 2015.

87. See Tetlock et al., op. cit., p. 404; Collazos, op. cit.

88. Hermann, “From Anticipated Victory”, op. cit.

89. Ibid., p. 80.

90. Janis, “Groupthink and Group Dynamics”, op. cit., p. 21.

91. Personal interview with Camilo Gómez, Bogotá, 29 January 2016.

92. Halperin and Clapp, op. cit.

93. Personal interview with Andrés Pastrana, op. cit.

94. Yetiv, op. cit., p. 106.

95. Personal interview with Andrés Pastrana, Bogotá, 8 September 2015.

96. Hermann, “From Anticipated Victory”, op. cit., p. 43.

97. Personal interview with Andrés Pastrana, Bogotá, 8 September 2015.

98. “El poder detrás del trono”, Revista Semana, 9 August 1999, available: <http://www.semana.com/nacion/articulo/el-poder-detras-del-trono/40130-3> (accessed 10 March 2016).

99. Personal interview with Andrés Pastrana, Bogotá, 8 September 2015.

100. Ibid.

101. See, e.g., Hermann and Preston, op. cit.

102. Ibid., p. 76.

103. Ibid.

104. Ibid., p. 40.

105. Personal interview with Andrés Pastrana, Bogotá, 8 September 2015.

106. Schafer and Crichlow, op. cit., p. 19.

107. Ibid., p. 249.

108. Janis, “Groupthink: The Desperate Drive for Consensus”, op. cit., p. 185.

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110. Rita Giacalone, “Latin American Foreign Policy Analysis: External Influences and Internal Circumstances”, Foreign Policy Analysis, Vol. 8, No. 4 (2012), pp. 335–354; Rita Giacalone, “Latin American Foreign Policy”, op. cit.