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Abstract
Crime has been a major focus for the government over the past decade, with a raft of new legislation implemented since 1997. And this has given people a lot of what they asked for – there are more police and they are more visible, sentencing is tougher and there are more people in prison. Overall, crime has fallen significantly.
But there are major gaps between these measurable facts and public perception. In particular the public still thinks that crime rates are soaring and the personal safety has declined – and they blame the government. This is a serious challenge, as we know that rating of competence on dealing with crime is a key driver of overall views of government, as well as citizens' quality of life.
This report explores why the gap between actual crime and the perception of crime exists and considers what the government can do to improve public perceptions. Some issues are driven by the media and are beyond government control, but there are significant actions they can take. This is a particularly appropriate time to pull together our extensive evidence, given that the Home Secretary has published a new crime strategy, Sir Ronnie Flanagan has produced the report from his review of policing, and work is underway in government to build confidence and reduce fear of crime in local communities.
Keywords:
Notes
1. Home Office, ‘Cutting Crime: A New Partnership 2008–2011’ (London: Home Office, July 2007); and Home Office, ‘The Review of Policing – Interim Report by Sir Ronnie Flanagan’ (London: Home Office, September 2007).
2. The report suggests that up to 80% of the decline in crime in recent years can be attributed to sustained economic growth, and that historically economic declines have been associated with rises in crime. Prime Minister's Strategy Unit, ‘Policy Review: Crime, Justice, and Cohesion’ (London: Cabinet Office, November 2006).
3. D. Downes and R. Morgan, ‘Skeletons in the Cupboard: The Politics of Law and Order at the Turn of the Millennium’, in Oxford Handbook of Criminology, eds. M. Maguire, R. Morgan and R. Reiner, 3rd ed. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2006), 286–321.
4. Ibid.
5. Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, Ipsos MORI, London, August 2007.
6. Civitas, ‘Crime: Are Public Policies Working?’ Online briefing, March 2006, www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/crimeBriefingMarch06.pdf.
7. HM Treasury, ‘Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2006’. HM Treasury, London, 2006, 44.
8. E. Solomon, C. Eades, R. Garside and R. Rutherford, ‘Ten Years of Criminal Justice under Labour – An Independent Audit’, Centre for Crime and Justice Studies, King's College, London, 2007.
9. In this figure, confidence refers to the per cent confident in government to crack down on crime (Ipsos MORI International Social Trends Monitor). Crime spending is total expenditure in real terms on ‘public order and safety’ (at 2004–5 price levels; HM Treasury, ‘Public Expenditure Statistical Analyses 2006’, 44, .3). Crime incidents are indexed against number of incidents in 1995 (British Crime Survey). Interpolated data used for Crime Incidents Index for 1998 and 2000.
10. On the aggregated 2006 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor data, we conducted two logistic regression analyses: one with ‘satisfied with the Government’ as the dependent variable and the other as ‘dissatisfied with the Government’, controlling for all the demographic factors that were bivariately related. Naming ‘crime’ as an important issue is a significant independent (positive) predictor of dissatisfaction but not of satisfaction.
11. As noted above, up to 80% of declines according to the Prime Minister's Strategy Unit.
12. B. Duffy and R. Robey, A New British model? Ratings of Economic and Public Policy from the Ipsos MORI International Social Trends Monitor in Britain, the US, France, Germany, Spain and Italy (London: Ipsos MORI, 2006).
13. T.W. Smith, ‘An Analysis of Public Evaluations of Neighborhoods, Communities, and the Country’, National Opinion Research Center, University of Chicago, 1998.
14. Ibid.
15. The fundamental tenet of the signal crimes concept is that people interpret and define particular criminal incidents as indicators about the range of dangers that exist in contemporary social life and that might potentially assail them. From M. Innes, ‘Crime as a Signal, Crime as a Memory’, Journal for Crime, Conflict and Media, 1, no. 2, (2004): 15–22.
16. We included the following independent variables in the model – age, gender, ethnic fractionalisation, qualifications, ethnicity, work status, voting intention, region, IMD (area deprivation), social class, rurality, activism activities, read ‘quality’ newspapers, read ‘popular’ newspapers, read ‘centre left’ newspapers, read ‘centre right’ newspapers, read the Daily Mail, read The Sun, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘punishments are not harsh enough’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘too much reoffending’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘terrorism’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘criminals should have to pay something back to the victim/s/communities’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘young offenders’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is that ‘there are too many criminals/too much crime’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is that ‘there is too much crime in some (deprived) areas’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is that ‘criminals are not being caught or not caught fast enough’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is that ‘more police are needed’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘gun crime’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘violent crime’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘drug taking’, thinks one of the most important issues in the UK when it comes to crime is ‘ASB’.
17. B. Duffy and L. Rowden, You Are What You Read? (London: Ipsos MORI, 2003).
18. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=476938&in_page_id=1770 (accessed 22 August 2007).
19. ‘Anarchy in the UK as Yobs Rule’, The Sun [internet] 20 August 2007 http://www.thesun.co.uk/article/0,,2-2007380532,00.html (accessed 20 August 2007).
20. See for example, J. Foster, ‘Police Cultures’, in Handbook of Policing, ed. T. Newburn (Cullompton, Devon: Willan Publishing, 2003).
21. Ipsos MORI report for the IPCC on public confidence in the police complaints system (2005). The research consisted of a series of discussion groups and depth interviews from the groups identified in a previous survey for the IPCC as less willing to make a complaint or more sceptical of the system. These groups included a variety of Black and Ethnic Minority groups, traditionally ‘hard-to-reach’ groups, including Gypsies/Travellers, Lesbian and Gay people, and recent immigrants to the UK.
22. CJS Staff Survey 2005/6.
24. Prime Minister's Strategy Unit, ‘Policy Review: Crime, Justice and Cohesion’. November 2006.
25. P. White, ‘The Prison Population in 1997: A Statistical Review’, Home Office Research and Statistics Directorate Research Findings No. 76, London, 1997.
26. ‘Inmate Numbers at Record 80,300’, BBC News online, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6510673.stm (accessed 23 May 2007).
27. BBC News online, ‘Reid Hits Back in Sentencing Row’, http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/uk_politics/6301125.stm (accessed 15 February 2007).
28. Note, however, that these figures should be interpreted with caution due to the small sample size used in this research.
29. B. Duffy, S. Hall and M. Williams, ‘Who Do You Believe? Trust in Government Information’, Ipsos MORI, London, November 2005.
30. B. Duffy, S. Hall and H. Cole, ‘Opinions: Before and After’, (Prospect April 2005). Ipsos MORI, London, 2005.
31. J. Roberts and M. Hough, ‘Understanding Public Attitudes to Criminal Justice’, in series Crime and Justice, series ed. M. Maguire (Buckingham: Open University Press, 2005).
32. B. Chapman, C. Mirrlees-Black and C. Brawn, ‘Improving Public Attitudes to the Criminal Justice System: The Impact of Information’, Home Office research study 245 (London: Home Office, 2002).
33. H. Salisbury, ‘Public Attitudes to the Criminal Justice System: The Impact of Providing Information to BCS Respondents’, Online Home Office Report (London: Home Office, 2004).