The 1999 Republic Referendum: Is there a Cycle?

Abstract

There are many ways to interpret the results of the 1999 Australian referendum on whether the Constitution should be altered 'to establish the Commonwealth of Australia as a republic with a president appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Commonwealth Parliament'. One possible interpretation that has not been investigated so far suggests that the result reflects the fact that there is a 'preference cycle' over the three constitutional models that dominated the debate preceding the referendum. This research note uses survey data and public choice theory to investigate whether this interpretation sheds any further light on the referendum results.