Climate change and the future of snowmobiling in non-mountainous regions of Canada

Abstract

Climate change impact assessments of winter recreation have almost exclusively concentrated on alpine ski industry, overlooking the potentially greater vulnerability of other winter recreation sectors of large economic value. This study presents an empirical assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the multi-billion dollar recreational snowmobiling industry in Canada. A snow depth model was used to examine the potential impact of two climate change scenarios on the length of snowmobiling seasons in the 2020s (2010–2039) and 2050s (2040–69) at 13 non-mountainous study sites in Canada. In the Provinces of Ontario and Québec, which encompass the densest network of snowmobile trails and largest number of registered snowmobiles in the country, average snowmobile seasons in the 2020s were projected to be reduced between 11% and 44% under the low emission climate change scenario and between 39% and 68% under the high emission climate change scenario. Under the high emission scenario for the 2050s, a reliable snowmobiling season would be essentially eliminated from Canada's non-mountainous region. The economic and planning implications of changes in the length of snowmobile seasons are discussed along with future directions for research.