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Abstract
This article focuses on the 2009 European Parliament elections in Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Cyprus and Malta. First, it presents the general background and key issues of the electoral campaigns in these six countries. Second, it tries to answer the question of whether or not these elections in Southern Europe conform to the theoretical framework of the national second-order election model. The major conclusion is that the hypotheses of this model are partially confirmed.
Acknowledgements
The author is grateful to Massimiliano Andretta, André Freire, Alberto Sanz, Lorenzo De Sio, Bambos Papageorgiou and Hermann Schmitt for providing valuable information and to the coordinators of the European Election Candidate Study of PIREDEU Project for their permission to use the country reports. She would like to thank the anonymous referees for their comments which helped to improve the paper and the Editors of South European Society and Politics, Susannah Verney, Anna Bosco and Marina Costa Lobo for their constructive suggestions and considerate and insightful editorial contribution at all the stages of the publication process. She is also grateful for Nondas Kinias's work in correcting earlier version of her article. Obviously, any remaining errors and shortcomings are the author's alone.
Notes
[1] The results of the 2004 EP election differ between, on the one hand, the west European member countries (including new members Cyprus and Malta) and on the other, the eight post-communist member countries. A possible explanation of these deviations from the second-order election model refers to the fact that the party and electoral systems in the post-communist democracies of Eastern Europe are still not consolidated (Marsh Citation2005; Schmitt Citation2005).
[2] The main differences between the results of the 2004 EP election in west European member-states and the eight post-communist member countries are that participation was lower, but abstentions in the east, in contrast to the west, had a light EU-sceptical tint. The Eastern government party losses did not follow the cyclical pattern and the smaller parties in many cases did not perform better in the 2004 EP election (Marsh Citation2005; Schmitt Citation2005).
[3] The number of Italian MEPs was reduced from 78 in 2004 to 72 in 2009 (pending the addition of one more once the Lisbon Treaty was ratified). Spain and Malta are the other two countries that will be impacted by the Lisbon seat reallocation. In 2004, Spain elected 54 MEPs, temporarily reduced to 50 in 2009, but due to be reinstated to 54 under the Lisbon Treaty. Malta's five MEPs were due to be increased to six under Lisbon. For Greece, Portugal and Cyprus the number of MEPs will remain the same after the Lisbon Treaty. Both Greece and Portugal elected 22 MEPs each in 2009, compared with 24 in 2004. The number of Cypriot MEPs remained at six for both 2004 and 2009. Following the 2009 EP election, those elected representatives whose seats correspond to those added to the EP under the Lisbon Treaty had a temporary ‘observer’ status until the Treaty came into force.
[4] The exception to this are the 1,305 Turkish Cypriots included on the electoral register for the 2009 EP election, along with 518,297 Greek Cypriots and 6,458 EU citizens.
[5] The average for ‘Old Southern Europe’ is also lower (49 per cent) compared with the respective EU average.
[6] The average turnout in Southern Europe and the EU is calculated for each of the three decades as follows: for the 1980s the EP elections of 1979–81 for the 10 member states and Italy and Greece, and the EP elections of 1984–87 and 1989 for the 12 member states and the four countries of ‘Old Southern Europe’. For the 1990s, the EP election of 1994–96 and 1999 for the 15 member states and ‘Old Southern Europe’. For the last decade, average turnout refers to the 2004 EP elections in the 25 member states and Southern Europe (now including Cyprus and Malta as well as ‘Old Southern Europe’), and the 2009 EP elections in the EU-27 and South European-6.
[7] The Greek turnout figures presented in this article are not the official ones. It was decided to recalculate the participation rates because, according to various researchers, the share of actual participation in Greece is higher. This difference is attributed to the fact that the electoral registers are based on the municipal rolls (which are not updated and include people who have migrated etc.). The basis of the recalculation is the population census of 2001 (provided by the National Statistical Service) and not the registered voters. From a precise calculation of the 2001 census data, it emerges that the number of Greek citizens resident in the country and of voting age was 8,238,174. The turnout rates are based on this number. For overall information, the official participation rates were: 52.6 per cent (2009 EP election), 74.15 per cent (2007 national election) and 63.22 per cent (2004 EP election).
[8] According to Freire (Citation2009), the abstention rate in the Portuguese 2009 EP election should be carefully interpreted. The number of citizens registered on the electoral rolls increased considerably, compared with previous elections. Moreover, registration for this EP election was not voluntary, as a new electoral law was in force entailing automatic registration for those over 18 years old.
