The 2010 Regional Elections in Italy: Another Referendum on Berlusconi

Abstract

This article analyses the 2010 regional elections in Italy, in which the centre-right, led by Silvio Berlusconi, was successful. This followed on from its victory in the 2008 general election and the 2009 European elections. The article analyses the extremely conflictual political climate in which the elections took place. The analysis of the election results concentrates on four points: the large increase in abstentionism, the contest in the northern regions between the Lega Nord and the Popolo della libertà, the failure of the centre political formations to realise their ambitions, and the success of far-left ‘anti-political’ groups.

Keywords:

• Italy
• Regional Elections
• Berlusconi
• Political Parties
• Abstentionism
• New Left

Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Gianluca Passarelli for the help given in the data analysis and all the researchers of the Istituto Cattaneo for the stimulating discussions in the aftermath of the vote.

Notes

 [1] The other seven regions held elections on different dates between 2005 and 2010. The centre-right won in Abruzzo, Molise, Sicily, Friuli-Venezia Giulia and Sardinia; the local autonomists supported by the centre-left won in Trentino-Alto Adige, and in Valle d'Aosta victory went to the Union Valdotaine, which is not connected to any of the main national coalitions.

 [2] It should be added that since 1999 every region has been able to draw up its own statutes and its own electoral law. However, at the time of the 2010 elections, only seven regions had passed their own electoral law (Baldi & Tronconi 2010) and, in any case, these regional laws have not substantially modified the points made in (a) and (b) above, which are the key features of the electoral system.

 [3] It should be remembered that both these parties were formed just before the 2008 general election: the PDL as the result of a fusion between Forza Italia (Berlusconi's party) and Alleanza Nazionale (National Alliance, which came from the neo-fascist MSI); the PD from a fusion between the Democratici di Sinistra (Left Democrats [DS], formerly the Communist Party) with the Margherita (Daisy, from the left wing of the Christian Democrats) (Corbetta 2009).

 [4] For a more in-depth look at the ‘Berlusconi phenomenon’, see, among others, Ginsborg (2006) and Stille (2006). For an analysis of Berlusconi's entry into politics and his first electoral success, see Katz and Ignazi (1996).

 [5] To update the reader, we would add that at the moment of writing (July 2010) none of the three proposals has yet completed its passage through parliament.

 [6] In Italy, the high turnout in elections for the whole post-war period up until the end of the 1970s was due to the big contrast between the Partito Comunista and Democrazia Cristiana, which drew politics to the attention of many Italians, and the social roots these parties had, widely spread out through local party branches, which could mobilise electors when elections took place. (On Italian political culture in the 1950s and 1960s see Galli and Prandi [1970].)

 [7] The victory of the centre-right in Piedmont was very narrow (47.3 per cent for the centre-right and 46.9 per cent for the centre-left, the difference being the equivalent of just 9,000 votes); in Lazio, the difference was slightly bigger: 51.1 per cent for the centre-right and 48.3 per cent for the centre-left.

 [8] As already stated, both the PD and the PDL were formed just before the 2008 elections. In Figure 3, the percentages before 2008 refer to the parties that fused to make the PD and PDL.

 [9] For a recent analysis of the LN and its local roots, see Cento Bull (2009).

[10] On Berlusconi and his party, see Maraffi (1995) for the genesis of Forza Italia and Raniolo (2006) for the more recent years.