The 2011 Portuguese Presidential Elections: Incumbency Advantage in Semi-presidentialism?

Abstract

The 2011 Portuguese presidential election resulted in a comfortable victory for the incumbent president, Cavaco Silva, an outcome consistent with the notion of substantial incumbency advantages. However, as this article demonstrates, the Portuguese case is part of a broader pattern, with semi-presidentialism in post-war Western Europe generating a considerable pro-incumbency bias in presidential elections. Using the Portuguese elections as a case study, it is found that this advantage derives not only from the direct benefits of holding office, but also from an indirect effect of incumbency on the quality of challengers. In particular, the average quality of challengers is significantly lower in elections with an incumbent than in open-seat contests.

Keywords:

• Incumbency Advantage
• Presidential Elections
• Semi-presidentialism
• Portugal
• Candidate Quality

Notes

[1] For a rare exception, see Fortes & Magalhães (2005), which takes into account incumbency in its analysis of presidential elections as second-order elections in semi-presidentialism.

[2] See for instance Robert Elgie's: http://www.semipresidentialism.com/The_Semi-presidential_One/Blog/Entries/2007/12/30_Up-to-date_list_of_semi-presidential_countries.html

[3] Presidents are limited to two consecutive terms. They can seek a third term, so long as it is not consecutive.

[4] For an overview of polls from early 2010 to the eve of the election, see Pedro Magalhães excellent blog Margens de Erro, especially the following entry: http://margensdeerro.blogspot.com/2011/01/tendencias.html (consulted 20 April 2011).

[5] This party was originally CDS (Partido do Centro Democrático Social, Party of the Democratic Social Centre). In the mid-1990s it changed its official name to Partido Popular (Popular Party), albeit retaining CDS in its acronym, being formally registered as CDS-PP. In 2009, the party changed its official name to CDS-Partido Popular, with the acronym CDS-PP. However, while the CDS is part of the official party name, it now stands as a name on its own rather than as an acronym.

[6] The monthly Eurosondagem barometer gave the Socialists 43.3 per cent of voting intentions in January 2006, more than the PSD (33 per cent) and CDS-PP (7.7 per cent) combined.

[7] The Eurosondagem barometer of January 2011 gave the PSD 37.4 per cent and the CDS-PP 9.6 per cent of voting intentions, well ahead of the Socialists 30.3 per cent.

[8] The PS was absent from power from 1985 till 1995. Since 1995, it has governed for all but three years, from 1995 to 2002; and then from 2005 till June 2011.

[9] Indeed, in a recent television interview of 17 April 2011, Fernando Nobre stated that in social terms, in humanistic terms I am certainly a man of the left, available online at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v = yLqOR3YXzdc&feature = related, minute 6:18-6:35