The Twilight of the Berlusconi Era: Local Elections and National Referendums in Italy, May and June 2011

Abstract

Following its victory in the spring 2008 general elections, the centre-right coalition led by Silvio Berlusconi formed a government that appeared to be the most cohesive in the history of the Second Republic. Three-and-a-half years later, in November 2011, Berlusconi was forced to resign, ending a long period in which he had dominated Italian politics. By analysing the 2008–11 political–economic cycle, with special attention to the local elections and the referendums of May and June 2011, we argue that the downfall of Berlusconi's government can be explained by the interplay of the international economic crisis, the scandals related to the prime minister's private life, the divisions of the parties of the centre-right and the shrinking of its parliamentary base.

Keywords:

• 2011 Local Elections
• 2011 Referendums
• Berlusconi Government
• Monti Government

Notes

 [1] The three previous cabinets led by Berlusconi lasted from May to December 1994, from June 2001 to April 2005 and from April 2005 to May 2006.

 [2] The number of ministers, vice-ministers and undersecretaries amounted to 102, the largest in the Second Republic. The ministers of the cabinet represented eight different parties, but if we consider also the vice-ministers and the undersecretaries the number of parties in the cabinet increases to 12 (Chiaramonte 2007). This makes the second Prodi government one of the most fragmented in the world of contemporary democracies.

 [3] Fini was (and still is) the president of the Chamber of Deputies. As the leader of AN, in March 2009 he led his party into a merger with FI, the party created by Berlusconi in 1994. The new party was named PDL and it included some other minor centre-right political groups.

 [4] See http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-debt_gov-debt-table-en

 [5] See http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/government-deficit_gov-dfct-table-en

 [6] Here we refer especially to the ‘Cassa integrazione guadagni’ (CIG), the main tool for supporting workers laid off by industries that need to downsize their workforce. Redundant workers are not fired but ‘temporarily’ placed on the payrolls of the CIG. They continue to receive a percentage of their salaries until they are called back to work or are permanently laid off. As can be seen in Table 1, the number of hours paid by CIG increased exponentially between 2008 and 2009.

 [7] In the Senate the vote was 162 in favour, 135 against and 11 abstentions.

 [8] For more details on the representativeness of the 118 municipalities sample see De Lucia and Maggini (2011). In Italy the size of the municipality is strongly associated with voting behaviour, particularly in the north (small towns are the strongholds of the LN). In general, the larger the municipality the better for the centre-left. On this latter point see Emanuele (2011).

 [9] The same results are obtained by Natale, Feltrin and Cristadoro (2011) using the larger set of 133 municipalities and comparing the local elections of 2011 with the European elections of 2009.

[10] On May 20 Berlusconi gave six interviews to radio and TV stations. They all had the same basic message. He pointed out the risks for the voters in Milan and Naples if the left-wing candidates won and strongly encouraged those who had abstained in the first round to go and vote in the second. The appeal had no effect in either city.

[11] The previous six referendums were held in 1997 (seven questions on various matters; turnout rate ranging from 30.0 to 30.3 per cent), in 1999 (one question on the parliamentary electoral law; 49.6 per cent), in 2000 (seven questions on various matters; 31.9 to 32.4 per cent), in 2003 (two questions, the first on the protection of workers from dismissal and the second on the construction of electricity networks; 25.7 per cent), in 2005 (four questions on assisted fertility; 25.6 to 25.7 per cent) and in 2009 (three questions on the parliamentary electoral law; 23.5 to 24.0 per cent).

[12] As shown by the results of a survey done a few days after the referendum, more than 25 per cent of the PDL voters and about 42 per cent of the LN voters went to the polls. The political dimension of the referendum was at least as important as the content of the specific questions (Carrozza 2012).

[13] The ten-year German Bund interest rate is considered a benchmark in Europe.