Destablization through partnership? Euro‐Mediterranean relations after the Barcelona declaration

The new ‘partnership’ which the European Union offers its neighbours on the southern shores of the Mediterranean may well have more negative than positive consequences for the prosperity and stability of the countries concerned. Contrary to the expectations of their advocates, policies of internal and external economic liberalization are not likely to increase the economic performance of the southern Mediterranean countries. In terms of productivity, investment, job creation and overall prosperity, losses will have to be faced. On the political level, these losses, seen as imposed by the ‘West’, pose many threats to the stability of the southern countries. While increasing repression may guarantee the survival of their regimes, it will further erode the stability of these countries. However, even economic growth and an equitable distribution of wealth would not be sufficient to ensure transitions to more participatory forms of government and thus stability based on more than repression. A serious yet circumspect political dialogue is also needed as an essential contribution to the stability of the countries concerned and of the entire Mediterranean basin.