Probabilistic Assessment of Strong Earthquake Recurrence in the Iranian Plateau

Abstract

Here, using three statistical models, namely, Gamma, lognormal and the Brownian Passage Time (BPT), we investigate the earthquake recurrence intervals by the use of instrumental and historical data for 15 seismogenic sources in the Iranian plateau. The renewal model parameters have been estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Also, the conditional probabilities of the occurrences of strong earthquakes during a specified interval of time have been estimated on the basis of the various statistical models. The logarithmic of likelihood function (ln L) has been used to compare the suitability of models and it was found that the lognormal model represents the best results in regions with intermittent occurrence characteristics.

Keywords:

• Brownian Passage Time Model
• Time-Dependent Models
• Cumulative and Conditional Probability
• Seismic Hazards; Iran

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) funds, Project 9605/516: “Investigation of time-dependent forecasting methods, case study: the Greater Tehran.” This financial support is gratefully acknowledged.