Agent-based simulation for a dual-diffusion process of influenza and human preventive behavior

Abstract

Influenza disease diffuses from one individual to another through their close contacts, while preventive behavior propagates through inter-personal influences. These two diffusion processes take place simultaneously and interact with one another in opposite directions. Many current influenza studies consider the diffusion of influenza, but few of them have incorporated the diffusion of human preventive behavior. This article proposes an original dual-diffusion model to couple these two diffusion processes. The conceptual framework of the model incorporates these two opposite processes into a human contact network. An agent-based approach, network theory, disease model, and behavioral model are integrated to formulate the conceptual framework. Model implementation simulates an influenza epidemic in an urbanized area of one million individuals. The simulation results suggest that the proposed model offers a close representation of the observed data. The research findings will provide a more rational basis for influenza control.

Keywords:

• diffusion process
• influenza transmission
• preventive behavior
• contact network
• negative feedback loop

Acknowledgements

The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions. This research was supported in part by the Mark Diamond Research Fund and the Hugh Calkins Applied GIS Award from the University at Buffalo.