Random encounters in probabilistic time geography

ABSTRACT

Probabilistic time geography considers the encounter of moving agents to be random; therefore, a quantitative time geography analysis must consider the actual encounter probability. The existing algorithm of encounter probability is oriented over a discrete space and is sensitive to the unit definition of a virtual grid; thus, it is not suitable for continuous space. For this reason, a new method is presented in this paper for the encounter of two moving agents in continuous space. When the encounters are less than a specified distance threshold apart, an encounter event occurs based on the probability of the product, which is calculated by their respective probability density functions over their respective potential location areas. This probability provides a quantitative basis for predicting the likelihood of two agents meeting, as well as the location of this meeting point. Finally, the validity of the proposed model is verified by an experiment, which uses tracking data to calculate the encounter probabilities of three zebras and analyse the distribution characteristics of these probabilities over time and space.

KEYWORDS:

• Time geography
• mobile agents
• encounter event
• encounter probability
• continuous space

Acknowledgements

The article could be significantly improved by the comments of anonymous reviewers. Thanks are due to Professor Lin Li of Wuhan University for valuable discussion. Zhangcai YIN has been supported by grants of the National Key R&D Program of China [Grant Number: 2017YFB0503700].

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

Zhangcai YIN has been supported by grants of the National Key R&D Program of China Grant Number: [2017YFB0503700].