Comprehensive scenario analysis for mitigation of risks of the maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul

Abstract

In this paper, the results of a scenario analysis are presented using the models developed by the authors in their prior work. Therein an aggregate risk-simulation model of the maritime traffic in the Strait of Istanbul was developed giving consideration to traffic rules, vessel profiles, pilotage services, meteorological, geographical conditions, and vessel scheduling. A risk assessment was carried out by incorporating a probabilistic accident risk model into the simulation model to establish a baseline level of risk. Herein, 16 scenarios are described as modifications of the baseline scenario for the purpose of studying maritime risk mitigation in this geographic context. We have evaluated the impact of several factors such as vessel arrival rates, vessel pursuit distances, number of pilots, local traffic density, and vessel scheduling practices such as the single-lane traffic regime start time on safety risks. We also present a discussion on the impact of each factor on vessel passages and waiting times at both entrances of the Strait. We conclude with risk mitigation recommendations that reduce both risk and waiting times, and thus can be considered ‘win-win’ from both an operational and risk reduction perspective.

Keywords :

• risk assessment
• risk mitigation
• maritime risk analysis
• Strait of Istanbul
• scenario analysis

Acknowledgments

Throughout this study, we have received sincere collaboration from the Turkish Straits Vessel Traffic Services (VTS), Turkish Ministry of Transportation, Directorate General of Coastal Safety, Turkish Undersecretariat for Maritime Affairs, Turkish Maritime Pilots’ Association, private industry, Istanbul Technical University Faculty of Maritime, Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, and the Turkish Navy Office of Navigation, Hydrography and Oceanography for which we are utmost thankful. We are also thankful to Prof. Johan Rene van Dorp of George Washington University for his valuable suggestions in this study. This work is in part funded by the Laboratory for Port Security at Rutgers University, NSF Grant INT-0423262, and TUBITAK, The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey through the Research Project 104Y207 and BAP (Scientific Research Project Fund of Bogazici University) through the Research Project 09A301D.

Notes

In Memoriam: This article is dedicated to the memory of brilliant researcher, excellent academician, and great friend, Dr Tayfur Altiok, who passed away on 14 April 2012. He will be deeply missed. May he rest in peace.