Charting the global rise of the modern plug-in electric vehicle (PEV)

By the early 1990s, the UK’s Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution (RCEP) had identified that the use of electric batteries for vehicle power offered the possibility of virtually zero exhaust emissions at the point of use (RCEP, 1991). Indeed, it was recognised that such vehicles had already been in use in the UK in certain specialised applications (i.e. milk floats) for many years (ibid.). Overall, the RCEP considered that this was an area of considerable promise in terms of reducing the public health and environmental impacts from vehicle emissions (ibid.).

Despite this illustrious recommendation, Graham notes in his book that nearly two decades later, the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) was still virtually non-existent on the road. However, between 2009 − 2019, sales of PEVs jumped, and there are now approximately 7.2 million PEVs operating on roads and highways around the world. Sales of new PEVs continue to grow so rapidly that the IEA forecasts approximately 130 million PEVs on the road worldwide by 2030, with virtually all global automakers planning to introduce new PEV models by 2025. Graham observes that the US, led by California, was fast to adopt PEVs between 2008–2015, but China and Europe are now moving faster. He now posits that ‘we may be standing on the precipice of a revolution in propulsion, not seen since the horse and buggy’.

At this point in time, Graham considers that in order to understand the potential impacts on economies, societies, consumers, international trade, and the environment; it is crucial to understand why there has been this global surge of interest in PEVs, and why some jurisdictions are moving faster than other. In communicating this research, Graham also seeks to provide a ‘unified introduction’ to the modern PEV, covering aspects of engineering, economics, environmental science, politics and public policy.

Graham has carefully traced the origins and global growth in PEV sales over the period 1973 − 2020, from a number of different perspectives, including: the 1970s energy security crises; air quality and climate change; supply chain complexities, the 2007 − 2009 global recession; country grids and charging network infrastructures; and consumer perspectives, and the policies that influence them.

Graham found that, rather than the potential reduction of public health and environmental impacts, it was the 1970s oil crises and the resultant energy insecurities that played a pivotal role in the emergence of government interest in the modern PEV. This interest first began in Japan, then in the US, and then China. Europe, though affected by the 1970s oil crises, instead chose a pro-diesel strategy, rather than a serious exploration of electric vehicles. It is now widely accepted that this pro-diesel stance has contributed significantly to Europe’s current air quality issues (EEA, 2019; Transport & Environment 2016). Despite this, Graham found that that it wasn’t until the 2015 VW Dieselgate scandal, and the resulting breakdown in consumer trust, that Europe adopted a pro-PEV stance; subsequently introducing strict post-2021 CO₂ standards that will induce the deployment of millions of PEVs by 2030. Concern about the public health impacts only really drove the US state of California to seriously consider electric vehicles. However, Graham recognises that CARB’s first regulatory expression – the zero emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate – was an extremely important factor in the advent of the modern PEV.

In terms of the supply chain logistics associated with the production of modern PEVs, Graham advises that the raw materials are of significant importance. Whilst there is no global shortage of these materials; he found that Chinese companies have established such dominant mining and processing positions that he recommends that the US, Europe and Japanese governments should take determined steps to counter them, in order to secure sources of supply for automakers around the world.

From a consumer perspective, Graham found that while the transition to PEVs is well underway, the transition from early adopters to mass commercialisation is likely to take longer than many forecasters suggest. Graham found that it takes at least a decade of sustained, pro-PEV policies to kickstart mass commercialisation. In terms of specific policies, Graham found that, alongside favourable urban traffic incentives and subsidies for public charging (Norway) and prohibited use of conventional powertrains in some cities (China); the key policy was the introduction of economic incentives to purchase PEVs. Even still, Graham found that more than 25 percent of Norway’s consumers choose against PEVs; underscoring, in his opinion, the pressing need for longer driving ranges and shorter charging times. In addition, Graham found that hybrid vehicles continue to offer such a significant cost advantage to PEVs, that innovation in the electrics utility sector is crucial to support mass commercialisation. Until then, Graham pragmatically recommends that, insofar as climate mitigation is the primary or sole policy objective, hybrid electric vehicles merit significant deployment until low-carbon electricity becomes widespread.

Overall, in terms of predicting the pace of the transition, Graham considers that politicians will allow consumers to decide the pace from 2021 − 2025. Beyond that, if the pace is not fast enough, Graham suggests that some politicians may be inclined to make the decision for consumers by banning, restricting, or taxing heavily the use of conventional powertrains. Thus, Graham concludes, ‘the pace of the transition to PEVs will be determined as much by politics as by markets’.

It is for this reason, that policymakers (both in areas where PEVs are becoming established and in areas where there is currently low penetration of the market), as well as scientists, engineers, and economists, should take note of this incredibly in-depth and comprehensive study. By taking a broad look backwards, Graham has identified the key origins of the emergence of modern PEVs, the supporting policies that increase the rate of transition, and the potential obstructions that may delay the transition from conventional powertrains going forwards. The book, whilst incredibly detailed, is split into clear sections that can be read and referenced separately; such that it serves as an essential basis for modern PEV research across many different disciplines.

Aware of Graham’s background and longstanding interest and involvement in vehicle safety (i.e. Graham, 1988, 1989), and given the unique hazards associated with PEVs (i.e. electrocution, explosion, electrolyte spillage and/or fire and the associated evolution of laboratory safety practices, as highlighted by O’Malley, 2018); as this revolution in mass propulsion continues, I would welcome his review of PEV safety in comparison with conventional powertrains in the next edition.

Maeve Carys McLoughlin

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