Measuring underreporting in accommodation statistics: evidence from Italy

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to provide a new measure of the underreporting of accommodation statistics in Italian domestic tourism. The analysis employs information from different official surveys. Following the Eurostat recommendations, we compare the Italian trips and holidays surveys and the movements in accommodation establishments, the two major official sources on tourism in Italy and on the activities of persons travelling, respectively. The analysis shows that demand-side estimates exceed accommodation statistics by 16%, on average, over the period 2007–2009 and that the underreporting rate is variable over time. The results highlight the need to explicitly consider this measurement error when analysing the tourism business cycle, forecasting tourism flows and defining tourism policy.

Keywords:

• tourism statistics
• underreporting
• usual environment
• business cycle
• non-observed economy
• measurement error