Time-variant destination lifecycle model and the coactive development process

ABSTRACT

The central tenet of the tourism-area lifecycle (TALC) rests on the idea of change. This paper utilized latent-growth curve modelling (LGCM) to synthesize a time-variant lifecycle model that quantifies changes in TALC-based hotel development. We accommodated the model with cross-lagged analysis to draw causal inferences. Based on data collected from 197 economies from UNWTO, findings reveal that the onset and growth rate of hotel development are associated with growth trajectories of tourist arrivals and overnight stays, which are subsequently associated with the growth trajectory of travel expenditure. A reciprocal influence between hotel development and tourist arrivals is also evident, suggesting a coevolutionary process underpinning TALC. This study adds to the nascent concept of multiplicity tourism-area lifecycles to denote an intricate web of linkages among different lifecycle traits of a destination. It improvises the concept of coactive development and paves the way for destination coevolution to articulate evolutionary interactions between tourists and tourism operators through reciprocal changes.

KEYWORDS:

• Tourism-area lifecycle
• TALC
• latent growth curve model
• destination
• hotel
• time-variant

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).