Are digital platforms potential drivers of the populist vote? A comparative analysis of France, Germany and Italy

ABSTRACT

Populist parties are often argued to be very skilled in using digital media to attract supporters and strengthen linkages with their followers. However, only rarely has research shown this linkage empirically. This study explores whether arguments about the relation between digital platforms and populist voting can be substantiated using comparative survey data in France, Germany and Italy. Digital media include a variety of online platforms that can affect populist vote in different ways. This article addresses the relation between the political use of digital platforms and the populist vote. First, it looks at how the use of Social Networking Sites (SNS) and Mobile Instant Messaging Services (MIMS) is related to voting for populist parties. Second, it assesses whether the role of digital platforms is different for supporting digital ‘immigrant’ and digital ‘native’ populist parties. Third, it explores country differences in the relation between SNS and MIMS’ use and the populist vote. Using original online surveys, the article shows that political activities on SNS and MIMS platforms (sending messages or posting, discussing or convincing others to vote for a candidate) increase the probability of voting for populist parties. However, it also finds that the political use of digital media is associated with the populist vote under certain (and limited) circumstances, that is only for a subset of populist parties. Finally, it identifies important differences in how SNS and MIMS are linked to the populist vote in countries presenting diverse institutional features, web regulations and constellations of media systems.

KEYWORDS:

• Populist vote
• Social Networking Sites (SNS)
• Mobile Instant Messaging Services (MIMS)
• Digital ‘native’ populist parties
• Online surveys

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Standard Eurobarometer no. 88 (Autumn 2017) and Eurobarometer no. 464 (April 2018).

2 Data on access to and trust in different media outlets in the three countries are reported in the online appendix.

3 Due to rounding in the construction of the sample, 1751 internet users were interviewed in France. The models are estimated after list-wise deletion of missing values for the selected variables of interest (as also reported in Table A4 in the online appendix).

4 The classification of other voting choices is reported in the online appendix.

5 We report the estimates from additional models excluding from the scales the items measuring discussion in the online appendix. We do so as such items might be less close to the sphere of institutional politics. Results are consistent with those presented here.

6 Cronbach’s alpha is 0.87 (similar scores are found in the separate samples).

7 The estimates of the models are reported in the online appendix.

8 The estimates of the models are reported in the online appendix. We omit the associations between SNS and MIMS use and other vote choices from the discussion.

9 For example, only nine respondents declared their vote for the German Pirate party in our survey.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Lorenzo Mosca

Lorenzo Mosca is a Full professor in the Department of Social and Political Sciences of the State University of Milan [email: [email protected]].

Mario Quaranta

Mario Quaranta is an Assistant professor in the Department of Sociology and Social Research of the University of Trento [email: [email protected]].