The missing ingredient: distance. Internal migration and its long-term economic impact in the United States

ABSTRACT

This paper examines if internal migrants at the turn of the twentieth century have influenced the long-term economic development of the counties where they settled over 100 years ago. Using Census microdata from 1880 and 1910, the distance travelled by American-born migrants between birthplace and county of residence is examined to assess its relevance for the economic development of US counties today. The settlement patterns of domestic migrants across the 48 continental states are then linked to current county-level development. Factors influencing both migration at the time and the level of development of the county today are controlled for. The results of the analysis underline the economic importance of internal migration. Counties that attracted American-born migrants more than 100 years ago are significantly richer today. Moreover, distance is crucial for the impact of internal migration on long-term economic development; the larger the distance travelled by domestic migrants, the greater the long-term economic impact on the receiving territories.

KEYWORDS:

• Internal migration
• distance
• long-term
• economic development
• counties
• US

Acknowledgements

We are grateful to Rahsaan Maxwell, the editor in charge of this manuscript, and to two anonymous reviewers for their supporting, yet incisive and challenging comments to earlier versions of the paper. Comments and suggestions by Philip McCann and Patrick McGovern, as well as by participants in seminars and presentations in Groningen and London, also led to significant improvements in the manuscript.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 In this paper, the terms domestic migrants and internal migrants refer to American-born population moving from one place to another and are used as synonyms. The terms American-born and native-born both refer to population born on American soil, rather than to the native indigenous populations.

2 The history of American geographical mobility ultimately starts with native Americans. Historians estimate more than around 143 ‘language families’ lived on the territory to the north of Mexico prior to the arrival of the Europeans (Spickard 2007). Thus, the American continent was far from ‘empty’ and American expansion to the West was by no means a peaceful undertaking. Unfortunately, as data on the settlement patterns or economic fundamentals of the population living in these areas and, especially for the native-American tribes, were not adequately recorded, we are unable to include this important part of the American history into the analysis.

3 The American Community Survey was only initiated in 2005.

4 Oklahoma only became an organized territory in 1890.