The societal economic value of COVID-19 vaccines in the United States

Abstract

Aims

The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed the lives of more than 800,000 people in the United States (US) and has been estimated to carry a societal cost of $16 trillion over the next decade. The availability of COVID-19 vaccines has had a profound effect on the trajectory of the pandemic, with wide-ranging benefits. We aimed to estimate the total societal economic value generated in the US from COVID-19 vaccines.

Methods

We developed a population-based economic model informed by existing data and literature to estimate the total societal value generated from COVID-19 vaccines by avoiding COVID-19 infections as well as resuming social and economic activity more quickly. To do this, we separately estimated the value generated from life years saved, healthcare costs avoided, quality of life gained, and US gross domestic product (GDP) gained under a range of plausible assumptions.

Results

Findings from our base case analysis suggest that from their launch in December 2020, COVID-19 vaccines were projected to generate $5.0 trillion in societal economic value for the US from avoided COVID-19 infections and resuming unrestricted social and economic activity more quickly. Our scenario analyses suggest that the value could range between $1.8 and $9.9 trillion. Our model indicates that the most substantial sources of value are derived from reduction in prevalence of depression ($1.9 trillion), gains to US GDP ($1.4 trillion), and lives saved from fewer COVID-19 infections ($1.0 trillion).

Limitations

Constructed as a projection from December 2020, our model does not account for the Delta or future variants, nor does it account for improvements in COVID-19 treatment.

Conclusions

The magnitude of economic benefit from vaccination highlights the need for coordinated policy decisions to support continued widespread vaccine uptake in the US.

Keywords:

• COVID-19
• coronavirus
• vaccine
• pandemic
• societal value
• cases avoided
• life years saved

JEL Classification Codes:

• H51
• H5
• H
• I10
• I1
• I
• I18

Transparency

Declaration of funding

This research was funded by Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Declaration of financial/other interests

MMF and BB are or were employees of Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc., which is a manufacturer of a COVID-19 vaccine. NK, ES, JL, JM, YS, and PL are employees of Analysis Group, which received consulting fees from Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Inc. The peer reviewers on this manuscript have received an honorarium from JME for their review work. A reviewer on this manuscript has disclosed that they are currently an advisor to NK on another valuation project–but one unrelated to this COVID-19 topic. The other peer reviewers on this manuscript have no other relevant financial relationships or otherwise to disclose.

Author contributions

NK, ES, MMF, BB, and PL conceived the study. All authors contributed to the study design. JL led the literature search, data collection, and analysis. All authors were involved in the interpretation of the results. JL, JM, and YS drafted the manuscript, and NK, ES, PL, MMF, and BB critically revised it. All authors have approved the final version of the manuscript.

Acknowledgements

We thank Wei Wei Magnuson and John Jarvis for assistance with the literature review, data collection, and analysis, and Anupam Jena for comments on an earlier manuscript draft. Editorial assistance was provided by Shelley Batts, PhD, an employee of Analysis Group, Inc.

Previous presentations

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