Seasonal and Temporal Patterns of Homicides and Suicides in Cali and Manizales, Colombia: A Times-Series Analysis 2008–2015

Abstract

Objective

To identify seasonal and temporal variations in daily incidence of homicides and suicides in Cali and Manizales, Colombia during 2008–2015.

Materials and methods

An ecological time series study was performed using negative binomial regression models for daily incidence of homicides and suicides; analyses were controlled for yearly trends and temporal autocorrelations.

Results

Saturdays, Sundays, December holidays as well as New Year and New Year’s Eve were associated with an increased risk of homicides in both cities. Suicide risk increased during December holidays and New Year in both cities. In addition, the suicide risk increased on paydays, Saturdays, Sundays, and Mondays in Cali, and it decreased during the Holy Week holidays in Manizales. December patterns of suicides and homicides are the opposite in each city, and between cities.

Conclusions

The incidences of homicides and suicides are not homogeneous over time. These patterns can be explained partially by alcohol consumption and changes in people’s routine activities which may modify exposure to violent circumstances.

Keywords:

• Colombia
• homicides
• incidence
• risk factors
• suicides
• time series studies

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors would like to thank the Security Secretariat of the Cali Mayor’s Office and the External Caused Deaths Surveillance System of Cali (in Spanish, SVMCE) for allowing access to the data.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This study was funded by the Ministry of Science of Colombia (MINCIENCIAS), formerly Administrative Department of Science and Technology of Colombia (COLCIENCIAS), Grant Number: 752-2017.

Notes on contributors

Lucy Nieto-Betancurt

Lucy Nieto-Betancurt, Ps, MPH, Student of the Doctoral Program in Health, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia; Lecturer Universidad Católica de Pereira, Pereira, Colombia.

Andrés Fandiño-Losada

Andrés Fandiño-Losada, MD, MSc, PhD, CISALVA Institute Researcher & Associate Professor School of Public Health, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia.

Antonio Ponce de Leon

Antonio Ponce de Leon, PhD, Associate Professor Social Medicine Institute, Universidad do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Sara Gabriela Pacichana-Quinayaz

Sara Gabriela Pacichana-Quinayaz, Ft, MSc, Assistant Researcher CISALVA Institute of Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia.

María Isabel Gutiérrez-Martínez

María Isabel Gutiérrez-Martínez, MD, MSc, PhD, CISALVA Institute Researcher & Professor School of Public Health, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Colombia.